Yesterday was black Thursday in newspaper land as four media companies reported dismal earnings, seven small newspapers shut down and publishers braced the public for more layoffs.

Yet there were some glimmers of hope in the bad news, including signs that deterioration in the advertising business may be slowing and online sales are picking up. We’ll start with the earnings news.

Rupert Murdoch’s $5.5 billion acquisition of Dow Jones & Co. in 2007 drew criticism on Wall Street because of the steep 65% premium the newspaper magnate paid for a flagship title in a declining market. It looks like the critics were right. Citing “the worst global economic crisis since News Corp was formed 50 years ago,” Murdoch’s company posted its largest quarterly loss ever and wrote down $8.4 billion in assets yesterday.

While News Corp. didn’t specify the size of the Dow Jones write-down, analysts speculated that it was responsible for much of the $3.6 billion goodwill charge. The company’s net loss was $6.41 billion, compared with a profit of $832 million a year earlier. Of course, write-downs make such comparisons meaningless. Revenues fell 8% to $7.88 billion. Adjusting for the write-downs, News Corp. still badly missed analyst estimates. Its quarterly operating profit was 12 cents per share, well below the consensus of 19 cents.

Murdoch has often been mentioned as a possible suitor for The New York Times, but in an analysts call yesterday, he dismissed speculation that he’s looking to make acquisitions. Ever the optimist, though, Murdoch found a silver lining in the dense clouds overhanging the media industry. “There has never been a greater appetite for news in the community,” he said. ” I have great faith in the newspapers, and if we continue the way we’re going, we may even get lucky and not have so much competition.”

Coincidentally, The shoe finally dropped at News Corp’s Wall Street Journal, which avoided layoffs in 2008. Twenty-five newsroom positions were eliminated, 11 by attrition and 14 by layoff. The Journal‘s New York-based fashion and retail group will be closed and the Los Angeles and Boston bureaus will each lose a job. The editorial staff numbers about 760 people.

Ugly Numbers, But With a Few Bright Spots

If you’re looking for silver linings, you can find a couple of them in otherwise dismal earnings news from McClatchy Co., Belo Corp. and Scripps Networks Interactive. The companies all reported predictably horrible earnings on Thursday, but there are signs that the revenue free-fall is abating. Belo, which has been slashing and burning payroll recently, actually beat Wall Street estimates by a couple of cents on revenues that fell 9%, in line with estimates. Scripps also beat the street on operating earnings of 55 cents a share, compared to forecasts of 51 cents.

Belo said first-quarter ad sales were about the same as the fourth quarter of 2008, indicating that some stability just possibly has taken hold. However, keep in mind that fourth-quarter sales were down 26% from a year earlier. McClatchy, which reported a $21.7 million quarterly loss, said overall sales continued to decline, but online revenues grew a reasonably healthy 10%. Both Belo and McClatchy made some progress toward paying down their debt, though they still owe over $1 billion and $2 billion, respectively. Scripps actually grew revenue in the quarter, although it slightly missed analyst estimates.

McClatchy is getting ready to swallow more bitter medicine. With classified revenues down 36%  and retail advertising off 10% in 2008, the company will cut at least another $100 million in expenses on top of staff reductions that have already trimmed its workforce by a third. Plans include continuing a freeze on executive salaries, eliminating executive bonuses, freezing pension plans and suspensing matching contributions to 401(k) plans. The company didn’t mention layoffs, but you can figure that one out. The Lexington (Ky.) Newspaper Guild doesn’t think McClatchy is going far enough in “declining undeserved bonuses or freezing bloated pay.” It appears to favor a public flogging, too.

Miscellany

The Daily Reporter of the Wichita, Kan. suburb of Derby is shutting down after 47 years. The last issue will be published Feb. 17. The closure puts six people out of work.

The Columbia county (N.Y.) Independent published its last issue today. The twice-weekly paper is owned by beleaguered Journal-Register Co.

The Provo Daily Herald of Utah will stop publishing five weekly newspapers it owns in American Fork, Pleasant Grove, Lehi, Lone Peak and Orem but won’t lay off any employees. Instead, coverage will be folded into a larger Daily Herald, a move intended to “strengthen the company’s core daily product.” The newspaper replaced the lost weeklies with a collection of localized websites that “will present news from all local schools, community groups, churches and local governments, and will feature a social marketplace.”

The Rexburg, Idaho Standard Journal will trim publication from five to three days a week. Starting March 3, the paper will be printed only on Tuesday, Wednesday and Saturday instead of Tuesday through Saturday. No layoffs are planned, since the publisher expects to beef up its online coverage. The move is interesting in light of the fact that most publishers that are cutting production schedules start with the low-margin Tuesday and Saturday editions. The 5,300-circulation Standard Journal is choosing to keep them.

The publisher of the Anchorage Daily News is preparing his staff for more layoffs. In a memo to employees, J. Patrick Doyle said the “unprecedented and deepening financial crisis” will necessitate staffing cuts, but “we will work quickly to notify employees who may be affected. As we have just begun work on these plans now, you may not hear more from us for at least a few weeks.” Which should make for great morale in the newsroom.

For want of $1 million, Hearst Corp. has given up the right of first refusal for the Seattle Times for the next 74 years. In a development that is more confusing than illuminating, Hearst missed a regular $1 million payment that it has made for nearly a decade to Times owner Blethen Corp. in order to ensure that Hearst will get the first chance to buy the paper if Blethen ever puts it up for sale. What’s confusing is that Hearst is already bailing out of the Seattle market by putting the Post-Intelligencer up for sale, so why would it want to buy the Times? The two papers work under a joint operating agreement that shares some expenses and profits (losses) between them. There’s now a debate under way over whether the P-I will continue as an online-only entity and whether the terms of the JOA even permit that. Hearst is reportedly trying to wriggle out of the JOA, which neither company likes very much, anyway. Ironically, the existence of a legal agreement that was intended to keep two newspapers in Seattle may now prevent the P-I from continuing to publish. If you really want to untangle this, read the story.

The Sarasota (Fla.) Herald-Tribune Media Group laid off 48 people and eliminated home delivery to Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda. The newspaper has cut its full-time staff to 350 people, which is 40% lower than its peak at the height of the Florida real estate boom. We were in central Florida last week and saw entire office parks with tumbleweeds rolling through them.

Ellen Mrja has a Nov. 17, 2008 memo from Minneapolis Star Tribune publisher Chris Harte outlining 10 steps the newspaper must take to make it through the industry downturn. The goals are laudable but some are contradictory, in particular  “1. We must maintain products that our readers and advertisers will find useful enough to buy” and “2. We must reduce every cost we can.” We’re not sure why this memo hadn’t turned up before before.

The National Labor Relations Board dismissed an appeal of a local board ruling that found that Bay Area News Group didn’t discriminate against employees because of their union organizing activities.  The union had claimed that three of 29 employees laid off last June were unfairly targeted because they were trying to unionize the workforce.

Newspaper companies went on the offensive this week, launching a public relations campaign to rebut forecasts of their impending death and boasting that more people read a newspaper the day after the Super Bowl than watched The Big Game.

The group was conceived by executives from Parade magazine, which wouldn’t exist if it weren’t for its weekly insertion in Sunday newspapers, and people from three other companies: Community Newspaper Holdings, Philadelphia Media Holdings and Cox Newspapers. Philadelphia Media Holdings, which owns the Philadelphia Inquirer, is teetering on the brink of insolvency and Cox has put 29 of its newspapers up for sale. In other words, the group hardly represents the pinnacle of management excellence in a troubled industry.

Nevertheless, the Newspaper Project launched with a website and ads that appeared in 300 newspapers on Monday. Here’s a PDF, if you’re interested. So far, the website appears to be mainly a linklog of material that’s appeared elsewhere, but the slate of authors is impressive. “Future ads will highlight the civic value of news content and how well print advertising continues to work for many businesses,” says Poynter’s Rick Edmonds.

It’s good to see the industry standing up for itself, but it’s depressing to see this initiative so focused on print. We agree with Ken Doctor, who was quoted applauding the project by the AP but who pointed out correctly that a name like “Newspaper Project” demonstrates a backward-looking perspective at a time when the industry really needs to talk about the future. Running kickoff adds in 300 newspapers strikes us as a recursive exercise to promote the industry to its existing audience, although the decision was no doubt heavily influenced by the availability of free ad space. Perhaps the group will focus future messages on the essential role newspapers play as sources of online news. That message is more likely to resonate with the disconnected under-40 audience.

P.S. Speaking of Philadelphia Media Holdings, owner Brian Tierney has reportedly asked the governor of Pennsylvania for state aid to keep the Inquirer and Daily News afloat. State aid may be the only option, since the company already missed a debt payment last September and survives at the benevolence of its creditors.

P.P.S. Monday was “National Buy a Newspaper Day.” The grass-roots effort was conceived by reporter Chris Freiberg of the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner, who set up a Facebook group and recruited 20,000 people to pledge to do their part for at least one day. We did by picking up a copy of the Orlando Sentinel. Another Facebook group has now formed targeting Feb. 13 for a similar action.

Gillmor Weighs in On Nonprofit Debate

Last week’s New York Times op-ed promoting the idea of funding newspapers as non-profit ventures continues to draw the ire of new-media advocates. Dan Gillmor, who practically fathered the citizen journalism movement, bluntly dismisses the proposal by two Yale financial analysts as “shallow thinking” and says that plenty of innovative for-profit business models are emerging. Expanding on comments we reported earlier (see “Voice of Reason in Nonprofit Debate”) Gillmor argues that the flaw in current save-the-industry thinking is that the industry as we know it deserves to be saved. Newspapers “have been systematically looted over the years, to send money to far-off corporate headquarters to pay fat executive salaries and boost stock prices. Preserve them? Why would we want to do that?” he asks.

The role of non-profits is to preserve worthwhile markets that can’t support profitable ventures, notes Gillmor, a veteran newspaperman. There are certainly some unprofitable newspaper functions that deserve to be supported, such as covering city council meetings, but “a great deal of the community information we’ll get in a few years will come from for-profit sources… We’re seeing an explosion of innovation now.”

Gillmor is right on the money. Endowments, public trusts and government funding shouldn’t be dismissed as a means to fund journalism in the public interest, but to use charitable contributions to fund a badly broken business model is, you know, paving the cowpaths.

Blaming Google

Recovering Journalist Mark Potts takes a machete to a recent column by former Washington Post editor Peter Osnos in which Osnos blames Google for profiting from links to newspaper content. Google has replaced Craigslist as the industry bogeyman in recent months, despite the fact that it has tried harder than any other successful Internet company to find ways to shore up the print business. Complaints that Google is harvesting the hard work of newspapers through links from Google News ring hollow, Potts says, when you consider that Google News doesn’t carry any advertising. Newspapers fail to appreciate the fact that Google sends them 20% to 30% of their online volume, he notes, and they ignore the fact that many do a lousy job of optimizing their pages for Google Adsense, the result being that the search giant ends up serving generic ads with poor click-through performance to stories that deserve better.

In a comments exchange, Potts piles on further, noting that the newspaper industry is uncomfortable with the notion of real competition. “Google and Yahoo control more than half of local online advertising spending,” he notes. “That’s disgraceful–and the shame lies entirely at the feet of newspapers, for failing to adequately pursue local online ad opportunities.”

Murdoch has NYT Envy

Rupert Murdoch “sits around all day and thinks about buying The New York Times,” said Murdoch biographer Michael Wolff in a Tuesday session at the Harvard Business School Club of New York. Murdoch also thinks the Times‘ financial saga will play out soon and there’s a fair chance Murdoch will end up with his trophy, Wolff said. That won’t necessarily be a bad thing for the Old Gray Lady, since Murdoch’s Wall Street Journal has managed to avoid layoffs until now.

Wolff had few kind words for Carlos Slim, the Mexican billionaire who recently invested $250 million in the New York Times Co. at generous financial terms. “He’s our national embarrassment. He’s a crook,” the author said, quoting a source in the Mexican media. In contrast, Murdoch is a pure newspaperman, he said. And despite Murdoch’s reputation for exploiting sex and violence to sell newspapers, he hasn’t messed with the Journal’s editorial quality.

That argument isn’t satisfying Pali Research analyst Rich Greenfield, a vocal critical of newspapers who has neverthelss been a staunch supporter of Rupert Murdoch. Not any more. Greenfield has cut his guidance on News Corp. a rare two levels from “buy” to “sell,” citing lack of strategy. “While we have long viewed Rupert Murdoch as the most visionary CEO in the media sector…we are increasingly surprised/frustrated with his lack of strategic direction related to News Corp’s television station, newspaper and book publishing assets.”

Meanwhile, Portfolio magazine says two sources say there will be 50 layoffs at the Journal next wek.

Miscellany

Two Canadian newspapers – including the giant Globe and Mail of Toronto – announced layoffs. The deepest cuts come at the 110,000-circulation Halifax Chronicle Herald, which is idling 24 of its 103 staff members, or almost a quarter of the workforce. “The numbers just kept getting worse and worse and worse and we just don’t know where they’re going to end,” said Dan Leger, the Chronicle Herald‘s director of news content, in a dour summary. The Globe and Mail laid off 30 people on top of the 60 who had taken an earlier buyout offer. That’s about 11% of the total workforce.

More newspapers are trimming publishing schedules to cope with the advertising downturn. In Ohio, the Troy Daily News, Piqua Daily Call and Sidney Daily News all announced plans to cut out Tuesday editions. The publisher said the reduced frequency will help avoid layoffs, adding that about 10% of the combined staffs at the three dailies had been cut in recent months. Group Publisher Frank Beeson has details on how the transition will be handled on one of the more hideous-looking newspaper websites we’ve ever seen (via Martin Langeveld).

A.H. Belo will lay off 500 employees, or about 14% of its workforce. Combined with 590 layoffs in two rounds last summer and fall, Belo has cut its total workforce by an astounding 25% in less than a year. Belo is also seeking to recover more cash by suspending a savings plan matching fund program, raising parking and transportation charges to employees and reducing cell phone reimbursements. The company owns several major daily newspapers, including the Dallas Morning News, Providence Journal, Riverside (Calif.) Press-Enterprise and the Denton (Texas) Record-Chronicle. Belo stock slipped about 4% on the news amid a general pounding of newspaper stocks on Friday. Gannett said fourth quarter net fell 36% and Media General said it would suspend its dividend. This quarterly malaise has become so common that it barely even merits mention any more, particularly with most of these stocks trading in the two-dollar range.

Jeff Pijanowski has started a running tally of newspaper layoffs. The 2009 total is already 1,399. Erica Smith has been doing the same thing since early 2008, and her total for the new year is 2,002. Let’s hope they’re staying in touch.

Voice of Reason in Nonprofit Debate

We’re tempted to shout “Hear, hear!” to Jonathan Weber’s superbly argued comeback to the doom-sayers who argue that going the nonprofit route is the only viable way to save American journalism.

In 1,400 words of unusual clarity, the publisher of the proudly for-profit NewWest.net makes these cogent points:

• The people making the strongest case for taking news organizations nonprofit mostly work for nonprofits themselves (a reference to David Swensen and Michael Schmidt’s op-ed in The New York Times last week);
• Nonprofit news organizations still have to meet their numbers, and that makes them subject to the same pressures to feed their audiences celebrity pabulum as profit-making organizations;
• Nonprofits will actually hurt profit-making news organizations by competing for advertising revenues while enjoying the benefit of tax-exempt status;
• The argument that readers are losing out because US newspapers have cut foreign bureaus is hokum. Americans have access to more foreign reporting than ever thanks to the Internet;
• There are successful profit-making ventures emerging online right now;
• The profit motive encourages innovation;
• To discard profitable business models as unworkable right now is to give up any hope that new models can emerge.

We particularly commend Weber for pointing out that much of the argument for giving up the profitability ghost is predicated on the belief that news organizations must continue to work they way they always have. As we’ve noted here many times, innovation flourishes when people discard assumptions. Paving the cowpaths of old newsgathering models will simply keep us marching in the same direction.

At the same time, we do want to acknowledge laid-off Providence Journal reporter David Scharfenberg’s well-argued case for a national journalism fund in a Boston Globe op-ed. The federal government already invests in public radio and public television, he notes; why shouldn’t online journalism be afforded the same benefit? Scharfenberg suggests a $100 million fund would “seed low-cost, Internet-based news operations in cities large and small – combining vigorous, professional reporting with blogging, video posts, citizen journalism, and aggregation of stories from other sources.” It’s not clear how he arrived at the $100 million figure or how these new Web projects would be different from the hybrids that are emerging as the media melts together into a single pool, but the amount seems modest enough in light of the billions being given to bail out the financial industry, whose misdeeds may never be publicly known because there are no journalist watchdogs around to report them.

Miscellany

The contentious dispute between the Hawaii Newspaper and Printing Trades Council and the Honolulu Advertiser has been resolved, with the Advertiser apparently getting the upper hand. Employees will have their wages cut 10 percent cut under a deal announced Friday. Union members will also give up two holidays a year. Just eight months ago, the union rejected management’s offer of a flat pay package with modest bonus increases. After looking at the company’s books and witnessing more layoffs, the union agreed to a much worse deal than the one it rejected earlier, with the sole added provision that it can see management’s books twice a year and the empty promise that the Advertiser will make “every practical effort to avoid involuntary layoffs.” There could be some grumbling in the ranks come dues-paying time in Honolulu.

E.W. Scripps is accusing partner MediaNews Group of behaving badly in borrowing $13 million from its Denver Newspaper Agency partnership to meet payroll at the Denver Post. Scripps is on its way out of Denver as it works to sell or close the Rocky Mountain News. Despite its lame duck status, Scripps will apparently miss the $13 million, which it can’t recover through loans due to the terms of its joint operating agreement with MediaNews.

Writing on Wired.com, Bruce Sterling analyzes French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s newspaper bailout and sees nefarious motives. Sarkozy announced last week that the French government will move to bail out its ailing print media (see There’ll Always Be a France)  by boosting support for newspaper deliveries, doubling government advertising and giving every 18-year-old French citizen a free one-year newspaper subscription. Is Sarkozy concerned about the disappearance of a free press? Hardly, Sterling theorizes. Rather, the collapse of the industry on the continent will raise the French President’s visibility as he becomes one of the few politicians who generates any media coverage at all. “While political rivals are scrabbling with bloody fingertips for a few grams of serious public attention, Sarkozy still has a regional empire of conventional media,” Sterling writes. Cynical indeed.

Sam Zell has had plenty of negative attention for under-estimating the enormity of the problems facing Tribune Co., but he’s still got admirers in the real estate industry. Another big-city publisher, Mortimer Zuckerman of the New York Daily News, says three Manhattan skyscrapers his company purchases lost $165 million in value in just seven months. It turns out Zuckerman’s Boston Properties acquired the buildings shortly after Zell exited the office property market in February 2007 for $39 billion. It was basically the peak of the market. In comparison, Zell’s personal losses on Tribune Co. amount to only about $300 million, according to most estimates. Our calculator tells us that’s about four months’ interest on the proceeds from his real estate sales.

Chicago Tribune associate editor Joycelyn Winnecke has earned plenty of derision for a Jan. 19 memo stating that attitude will now be a factor in employee performance reviews.  The idea that skeptical reporters should be expected to present a positive mental attitude strikes some journalists as just wrong. BusinessWeek‘s Catherine Arnst sums up some of the reactions in a blog entry. “The beatings will continue until the morale improves,” notes one predictable comment, and several other visitors weigh in with perspectives on both sides of the issue.

Layoff Log

• The Wenatchee (Wash.) World announced the first layoffs in the daily’s 104-year history.  The 12 furloughs will reduce the newspaper’s workforce from 145 to 133. “We hung on as long as we could,” said Publisher Rufus Woods.
• The Pioneer Press of Minnesota has laid off eight employees since a 14-month contractual provision against layoffs expired Dec. 31.

And Finally…

Yes, that really is Olympic gold medal swimmer Michael Phelps smoking a bong pipe in a photo taken last November during a house party at the University of South Carolina. Phelps has admitted that he “engaged in behavior which was regrettable and demonstrated bad judgment.” Observers said he knew exactly what to do with the pipe. To be fair, Phelps was taking a long hiatus from training at the time. Fox Sports has more, along with a link to a photo gallery of “Sports’ top tokers.”

The Baltimore Examiner will close on Feb. 15, ending its three-year-run as the city’s second newspaper. Launched by a company controlled by Denver billionaire Philip Anschutz, the free daily had been troubled since the beginning. Parent company Clarity Media Group had cut newsroom staff by half since launch and reduced home delivery from six to two days per week last summer. A spokesman blamed the closure on a lack of national advertising. The AP report said the newsroom was shocked by the news, a surprising reaction considering that the Examiner had been on the market for months. About 90 people will lose their jobs.

The Examiner is part of a small chain that includes siblings in Washington and San Francisco. Those papers are unaffected by the closure. It seems odd that Clarity would have chosen to launch two of its three newspapers just 40 miles from each other. However, MediaPost says the company hoped to achieve advertising synergies between the two.

Campus Paradox: College Students Prefer Print

College newspapers continue to defy overall demographic trends by enjoying greater success with their printed products than their websites. In fact, writes Brian Murley, the challenge for campus publishers is to get more students to visit them online. Murley, who is assistant professor of new and emerging media at Eastern Illinois University, director for innovation at the Center for Innovation in College Media, and the college media correspondent for MediaShift, writes at length about the growing financial problems at college newspapers. National advertising has been tough to come by, and local advertisers still prefer to run in print. College publications have been hurt by the global recession, as has everybody else. Some of them are now also seeing their university funding dry up. In response, many are toying with supplements on topics like housing and entertainment, and they continue to push local sports as a key differentiator.

Murley points to an Alloy Media + Marketing study last spring that found that 76% of college students had read their college newspaper in the past month. This behavior contradicts the conventional wisdom that young people don’t read newspapers, but perhaps reinforces the notion that hyper-local coverage can appeal even to the digital generation.

There’s Life After Newspapers, But Less Money

Veteran reporter Robert Hodierne posted an online survey asking the question: “Is there life after newspapers?” He got 595 responses and while the results aren’t scientific, they offer an interesting glimpse into experiences of people who have left or been forced to leave the daily grind.

You can read Hodierne’s 4,100-word essay on American Journalism Review here, but here are some bullet points we took away. More than half the layoff victims report finding full-time work within three months. More than 90% found jobs within a year. Only 6% found jobs at newspapers. Most of those who switched industries – media relations is a popular alternative, but Hodierne’s vignettes cover a broad range of new careers – say they’re happy in their new jobs. Even so, 85% said they miss working at a paper.

The news isn’t all good, though. Many are making less money. “The midpoint salary range for their old jobs was $50,000 to $59,000. Those who listed salaries for their new jobs were a full salary band lower – $40,000 to $49,000,” Hodierne writes. Worse is that the salary cuts appear to hit older workers harder. “The median age of those who made less than $20,000 at their old newspaper job was 24. The median age of those now making less than $20,000 is 48.”

Hodierne interviewed many respondents and found a wide range of experiences. Theresa Conroy opened a yoga studio and loves it. But Joseph Demma, who participated in three Pulitzer Prize-winning projects, found himself unemployed at 65 and considering a job as a Wal-Mart greeter. The piece is heavier on anecdotes than statistics, but it offers an interesting glimpse into the lives of many career journalists who have had to adapt to the realities of the new market.

Miscellany

Add Media News Group to the growing ranks of publishers asking employees to take a week of unpaid leave in order to avoid job cuts. This follows Gannett’s announcement of a similar plan earlier this month. Media News’ 3,300 employees at more than 50 newspapers in Northern California have to take a breather by the end of March. The union is negotiating the terms, which is what unions do. Lake County News has more details about cutbacks at Media News, including a report that the company had to loan its flagship Denver Post $13 million to make its December payroll, has cut its staff at the East Bay Newspaper Partnership by 60 percent and laid off the person at the Lake County Record-Bee who is largely responsible for laying out and proofing the paper. If the last item is true, then Craig Silverman at RegretTheError might want to keep a careful eye on future issues of the Record-Bee.

The Congressional Quarterly, which isn’t quarterly, is for sale. No, this isn’t another distressed publishing property being shopped for pennies on the dollar. CQ is actually a nicely profitable business with a subscription website, a weekly magazine and a daily paid newsletter, among other properties. It’s just that owner Times Publishing Co., which is wholly owned by the Poynter Institute, has other things to worry about, like how the south Florida advertising collapse is affecting the St. Petersburg Times. CQ has come under pressure from a slew of recent startups covering Capitol Hill and it needs some careful oversight in order to stay competitive. Plus, Times Publishing could use the money.

NPR’s Marketplace reports that there are plenty of working journalists on Capitol Hill; they just aren’t working for newspapers. Specialized newsletters continue to thrive amid the general industry carnage because they serve up valuable information to small audiences that are willing to pay for it. “Our readers get excited about things like section 112R of the Clean Air Act,” says Rick Weber, who oversees the Inside EPA newsletters. “We cover the minutiae of how policy is shaped and implemented.”

Specialty publications may be attractive options for laid-off journalists who don’t mind focusing on a single topic or government agency. They offer plenty of entrepreneurial opportunity and a lean management structure. The downside is their vulnerability to political shifts and economic uncertainty due to their reliance on a small number of paying subscribers.

“The Death of Daily Newspapers Is a Step Forward” headlines an opinion piece by former newspaper reporter Jon Severson, who maps out a long list of publications that arrive continuously on his BlackBerry. Severson monitors about 30 news feeds on his handheld device and supplements that information with an assortment of weekly magazines, radio programs and personal contacts. “I don’t know a twenty – or thirtysomething young professional worth his or her salt who doesn’t own a Blackberry or similar smart phone,” he writes. “We’ve moved on to more efficient ways to get the information that suits our busy lifestyles.” And it’s eco-friendly.

And Finally…

This has nothing to do with newspapers, but it’s wicked fun. T-Mobile cashed in on the flash mob craze two weeks ago by staging a simultaneous dance by more than 200 people at Liverpool Street Station in London. The event had to be done in one take to maximize the element of surprise, and bystanders did exactly what the cell phone carrier hoped they would do: they recorded the dance on their cell phones.

“The future of newspapers is rooted firmly in 1878. Some guy was doing … 130 years ago, exactly in a place like this … what I’m doing right now. Except he had a better heating system.”

The speaker is Ed Shamy, a 50-year-old former newspaper editor from Vermont who’s part of a growing number of laid-off publishing professionals who are starting their own local publications. Ed Shamy publishes the 130-year-old County Courier in Vermont. All by himself.

Is this a trend? It could be. Yesterday, we told you about Melissa Marinan, a veteran ad sales rep who lost her job when her newspaper closed. So she’s starting her own local newspaper. Just last week, we pointed to a story about Joshua Karp, an entrepreneur who wants to start hundreds of hyper-local newspapers written by bloggers.

Amid all the hand-wringing about the perilous economics of major metro dailies, one fact has been buried: the cost of publishing a local newspaper is lower than it ever has been. Digital cameras have cut the time and cost of taking and publishing photos. Desktop software can be used to lay out pages quickly and cheaply. Editors can tap in to local blogs and websites for information that used to require phone calls and faxes. Many printers can now go direct from computer file to plate. Distribution can be done in an afternoon out of the back of one’s car.

It’s not a great way to make a living, but potentially it is a living. For the ranks of laid-off baby boomers who are no longer supporting kids and big mortgages, it may be a viable way to apply their skills. We believe local newspapers actually have a bright future.

Superior Economics

Why can local publishing flourish while major metros collapse? No unions, for one thing. No presses, no delivery trucks, no circulation departments, no call centers. In fact, local newspapers have almost no infrastructure costs at all. A skilled writer who works full-time and leverages contributions from the community can turn out enough copy and photos to fill a 16-page weekly issue. A second person can cover every prospective advertiser in the area.

The advertisers are there. In fact, local businesses are the great untapped revenue source. Major metros traditionally haven’t bothered with them because the dollars are too small. There are no online services that serve local communities effectively. Most small businesses advertise through a patchwork of channels that can include place mats and business card holders in the local hair salon. It’s a frustrating, time-consuming process that small business owners would rather not bother with. A newspaper that reaches a local audience has a chance to deliver a better return at a lower sales cost.

Print is not dead, only certain manifestations of print. A lot of skilled publishers are out of work right now, and at least some of them will follow the path of Ed Shamy and Melissa Marinan. We wish them well.

Layoff Log

• Baltimore’s Capital Gazette Communications will cut 111 jobs as it moves all printing operations from Annapolis to Comprint, a Laurel, Md. Printer that already produces several daily and weekly papers. The body count at Capital includes 31 full-time and 51 part-time press and mailroom positions, along with 29 other people in other departments. No reporter jobs were cut. The Capital Gazette also prints the Bowie Blade-News, Crofton News-Crier and the West County Gazette. No word on whether the contractor will hire any of the laid-off employees.
• The Missoulian (Mont.) has cut six jobs and will combine its call center with four other newspapers in big sky country. The Montana Standard is doing the same thing.
• The Hutchinson (Kan.) News will lay off four employees and require everyone to take one unpaid week of before April 30. The newspaper also plans to reduce its daily page count.

Downturn Hits Ethnic Press

New York’s ethnic press, which has been mostly insulated from the downturn affecting the newspaper industry, is beginning to suffer. A Spanish-language daily and a Chinese weekly have already closed this year and now the Ming Pao Daily News, which is considered the most intellectual of New York’s four Chinese newspapers, is reportedly slated for closure by its Hong Kong parent. The New York Times notes that ethnic newspapers enjoy an intimacy with their readers and advertisers that big-city dailies traditionally don’t and that this has bought them some security in the past. But the lousy economy is threatening the already thin margins of these small-circulation properties, and many don’t have websites to fall back on. Ming Pao will continue to publish a free daily, which has been the sole bright spot in the market. New York had 10 Chinese daily newspapers just 20 years ago.

Extra! Extra! Blog All About It!

Blogging has come full circle in San Francisco, where a software entrepreneur-turned-publisher has launched a weekly newspaper composed entirely of blog entries. Joshua Karp has big plans for the chain he calls The Printed Blog. If his idea reaches its full potential, he’ll have hyper-local twice-daily editions in thousands of communities around the US. Chicago alone could support 50 localized Printed Blogs. Karp’s editorial model is very Web 2.0-like: bloggers give him their stuff in exchange for a slice of the profits. More than 300 have already signed on. Profits aren’t an issue right now, but Karp believes that local businesses will appreciate the tight control they’ll have over their ad messages as well as the low cost of $15 to $25 to reach 1,000 readers. The New York Times account quotes one advertiser exulting in his new ability to tailor his ads to specific neighborhoods. Printing is outsourced to local distribution points. Naturally, there’s a website.

Layoff Log

• Voice of San Diego is reporting that another 50 employees will be laid off at the Union-Tribune. The paper has been a prominent victim of the area’s cratering economy, having already laid off 15% of its employees a year ago and staging another buyout since then. The U-T has also been for sale for the past six months. While several local investors have expressed interest, no one has written a check yet.
• The Mason City (Ia.) Globe Gazette has laid off nine full-time employees and will leave six open positions vacant. No word on how large the total staff is.
• Lee Enterprises-owned River Valley Newspaper Group, which includes two dailies and eight weeklies in Wisconsin, has cut 10 positions across the company.
• The Traverse City (Mich.) Record-Eagle has cut the equivalent of eight positions from a staff of unspecified size.
• The Peoria Journal Star is laying off an unspecified number of employees part of a plan to reposition the paper. Asked for a quote, publisher Ken Mauser delivers one of the most vapid comments of this new year: “Like many companies operating in today’s business environment, change will be inevitable and necessary to position our business for the future.” A blogger at Illinoize says 11 people lost their jobs.

Miscellany

The sour economy has spurred the San Jose Newspaper Guild and two newspapers to come to terms after 23 months of negotiations. The 25 Guild members get a year of job security and pay raises through 2012, but give up the right to block management from outsourcing some of their jobs.

The right-wing Tulsa Beacon takes the publisher of the Tulsa World to task for joining the most exclusive country club in the city while simultaneously laying off 28 people at the newspaper. Hypocrisy, the Beacon reports, is exclusively the domain of the liberal media.

Good obituary writers have their research done well before the subject is laid to rest. In that spirit, Newsosaur Alan Mutter begins the process of writing an obit for the Chicago Sun-Times, a newspaper that he clearly believes is destined for our R.I.P. column in the not-too-distant future. Mutter, who used to work at the Sun-Times, begins his tale in 1984 and tells the story of the first 10 years of ownership changes that “turned our thoughtful, respected and reasonably prosperous tabloid into a scandal sheet.” It’s a personal, poignant and sometimes funny account that will be told in installments.

Congratulations to Martin Langeveld, whose thoughtful News After Newspapers blog has been scooped up by the Nieman Foundation as part of its journalism lab.  He’s joined there by Tim Windsor and Matthew Ingram. In an introductory entry tellingly tagged “audience, doom, newspapers, and print,” Langeveld describes the reasons why the industry has entered into an inescapable vortex and how the thinking at daily papers must change if there is to be any hope of survival. He will continue to serve up the provocative ideas he started at NAN and the industry will be better for it.

The Register-Pajaronian of the Santa Cruz valley area will cut back its publication schedule to three days a week from six. The 141-year-old paper blamed its financial troubles on the collapse of major advertisers Mervyns and Circuit City. Unspecified layoffs accompanied the move.

If you’re still wondering “Who the hell is Carlos Slim?” Fortune has some background for you. A brilliant investor who specializes in buying distressed firms, Slim is now bailing out The New York Times Co. and may end up controlling the company as a result. For journalists, the nut graph is near the end: ‘Slim seems to neither covet the attention nor access that comes with being a media baron, nor to share the controlling Sulzbergers’ view that their ownership is a trust that puts the company’s journalistic mission ahead of commercial imperative.” If it’s a bio you want, get thee to Wikipedia.

And Finally…

The Boston Globe held out longer against front-page advertising than The New York Times – about two weeks longer. The Globe‘s first page-one ad ran on Wednesday, timed to coincide with the production of an additional 100,000 inauguration issues. The ad was for the movie “Defiance” (see below).

Google CEO Eric Schmidt has been one of the most vocal supporters of newspaper among the ranks of the digerati, so it must hurt him to pull the plug on Google Print Ads. When it launched the program two years ago, Google hoped Print Ads would not only be a revenue stream but also a sincere effort to bridge the print/online gap and inject new life into newspapers’ traditional business. Unfortunately, “It is clear that the current Print Ads product is not the right solution,” wrote Spencer Spinnell, Director of Google Print Ads, in a blog entry, “so we are freeing up those resources to try to come up with new and innovative online solutions that will have a meaningful impact for users, advertisers and publishers.”

Print Ads was a variation of Google’s ad brokering system that enabled advertisers to bid on space in member newspapers. Google eventually amassed over 800 newspaper partners. The program differed from a bigger initiative by Yahoo because Google targeted print advertising directly. Yahoo’s newspaper partnerships are strictly online. Spinnell’s announcement was tinged with regret. “We believe fair and accurate journalism and timely news are critical ingredients to a healthy democracy,” he wrote. “We remain dedicated to working with publishers to develop new ways for them to earn money.”

Will Slim Bid for Times Co.?

Now that Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim has loaned The New York Times Co. $250 million to meet its debt obligations, speculation is focusing on his motivations.  With a personal fortune estimated at more than $60 billion, Slim is one of the world’s richest men. Buying the Times Co. would add a new chapter in his storied career investing in telecommunications, retailing, construction, banking, insurance, railroads and mining. Unlike Sam Zell, Slim could finance the Times Co. with pocket change, meaning he could own one of the world’s greatest media brands without the overhead of having to meet onerous financial terms. Alan Mutter suggests that Slim could parlay his investment into an outright takeover, something no other investor has been able to attempt because of the Ochs Sulzberger family’s tight control of the company. He notes that the comparatively shallow-pocketed Rupert Murdoch bought Dow Jones for a much higher price. “If Murdoch could swing $5 billion for Dow Jones with only $8 billion in personal net worth, then imagine how much Slim could afford to pay for a trophy like NYT,” Mutter writes.

Journalism’s Distant Mirror

Writing in The New Yorker, Jill Lepore reminds us that newspapers have been declared dead before. Her historical account begins in 1765 and takes us through the crucial role that newspapers played in colonial America by fanning public outrage against British – and later American – rule. The Stamp Act, passed by Parliament that year, was widely thought to be the death of newspapers, since it affixed a tax to every page printers produced. But resourceful publishers persevered, even moving their presses by boat under the cloak of night to evade government enforcers.

Lepore notes that the concept of an impartial press is a relatively recent invention. “Because early newspapers tended to take aim at people in power, they were sometimes called ‘paper bullets,'” she writes. “Standards of journalistic objectivity date to the nineteenth century. Before then, the whole point was to have a point of view.” In fact, Benjamin Franklin, who could be considered the father of the American newspaper, didn’t see his role as being “to find out facts. It was to publish a sufficient range of opinion.” In that form, “Early American newspapers tend to look like one long and uninterrupted invective.”

This oppositional role didn’t just roil the British authorities. John Adams signed into law the Sedition Act in 1798, making it a crime to defame his administration. “Adams had come to consider printers a scourge,” Lepore writes. Adams’ successor, Thomas Jefferson, was an ardent supporter of a free press, but by the beginning of his second term, even Jefferson admitted to having thought about prosecuting some publishers.

While not framing the point explicitly, Lepore makes the case that partisan journalism of the kind practiced by bloggers isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Truth may be the casualty of unbridled opinion, but that was also the case in the 18^th century, when even Sam Adams occasionally made up stories to dramatize British cruelty. The fact that some newspapers published untruths didn’t make them any less vital to the establishment of a fledgling democracy. “Without partisan and even scurrilous printers pushing the limits of a free press in the seventeen-nineties, [author] Marcus Daniel argues, the legitimacy of a loyal opposition never would have been established and the new nation, with its vigorous and democratizing political culture, might never have found its feet.”

We feel compelled to note again that Newspaper Death Watch is cited in the article’s opening paragraph, although we differ with the author’s characterization of our tone as gleeful. We prefer to think of it as bemused.

Miscellany

The LA Times is girding for more layoffs. Russ Newton, the Times‘ senior vice president of production, sent a letter to the Teamsters union, which shared it with its members. “The Los Angeles Times has decided to take steps to further reduce its cost including, but not limited to, layoffs,” Newton writes. “[T]he Company intends to implement the cutbacks no later than March 15^th, 2009.”

Romenesko reports that Gannett newspaper boss Bob Dickey’s decision to fly from Virginia to Arizona to announce plans to sell the Tucson Citizen wasn’t entirely altruistic. In fact, Arizona appears to have been just a waypoint on a trip further west. Dickey is in Palm Beach, Calif. this week for the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic golf tournament.

Editor & Publisher‘s Mark Fitzgerald reviews the redesigned Chicago Tribune and pronounces it a “home run.” With its clean look, lack of jumps and liberal use of info graphics, the “to-go” edition of the Trib, which will only be sold on newsstands, “eloquently makes the argument that it’s time America’s big-city dailies seriously consider converting to a compact format,” Fitzgerald writes. The question is when the Tribune will simplify things and make the tabloid edition available to home subscribers, too.

Lee Enterprises reported a 69.3% decline in first-quarter profits as revenues dropped 13%. The company said it is further cutting costs and will ask shareholders to authorize a reverse stock split to comply with the minimum bid price requirement of the New York Stock Exchange listing standards, if necessary. In an unrelated move, the publisher of the Lee-owned Wisconsin State Journal and Madison Capital Times said it will cut 12 positions, mostly in editorial.

The World Association of Newspapers will postpone its annual congress because of the global economic crisis. The meeting was set to take place in Hyderabad, India in March, but only 250 delegates have signed up so far. That’s well below the 1,500 who usually attend.

Last summer we told you about Neighborsgo.com, a spinoff of the Dallas Morning News that uses a social network to anchor a community journalism initiative. Apparently it’s working. Editor & Publisher reports that Neighborsgo is being expanded to cover 47 neighborhoods, with each section featuring headlines, local restaurants, gas prices, education resources and crime news.

Media malaise continues to spread beyond the newspaper industry. Warner Bros. Entertainment is cutting its global workforce by 10% by laying off 600 people and leaving 200 vacant positions unfilled. Clear Channel Communications, which is another diversified media company, announced plans to idle 1,850 workers last week.

Hearst Corp. has officially notified employees of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer that they will all lose their jobs if no one buys the newspaper. This may have seemed obvious following last week’s announcement that the paper will be shuttered if a buyer isn’t found, but Hearst had to send a letter as a formality. A few people might be offered jobs at SeattlePI.com if the publisher elects to keep the website alive.

And Finally…

Here’s one to satisfy your inner voyeur. Nicholas White was trapped in an elevator in New York City’s McGraw-Hill building for 41 hours. It was a lonely ordeal, but White unknowingly had a security camera to keep him company. His plight is documented in a time-lapse video that condenses 41 hours to just a few minutes set to mournful music.

Add one more name to the list of the newspaper industry’s walking dead: those titles that have been put up for sale with the threat of closure if a buyer isn’t found. Colorado’s Rocky Mountain News and Seattle’s Post-Intelligencer are both in limbo awaiting rescue and now Gannett Corp. has added the Tucson Citizen to the auction, stating that if a buyer isn’t found by March 21, the afternoon daily will close.

The Citizen has been published by Gannett in a joint operating agreement partnership with Lee Enterprises, owner of the Arizona Daily Star. Gannett has actually made out in the deal because the Daily Star makes more money than the Citizen and has to pay a share of profits to its competitor. But even that apparently isn’t enough to make the Citizen a worthwhile investment for Gannet. D-Day is March 21.

Some Pols Miss the Heat

In an ironic twist, public officials are beginning to complain about the loss of the watchdog journalists who used to keep them awake at night.

Broward/Palm Beach’s New Times carries an opinion piece featuring quotes from numerous government officials complaining about the lack of journalistic oversight. Financial problems at the Miami Herald and the Fort Lauderdale Sun-Sentinel, compounded by Florida’s sour economy, have led to massive staff cuts. That means some cities that used to have two reporters are now covered by one third of one reporter.

“[The Sentinel] doesn’t seem to have the interest in going after big-time issues that require work,” says Broward Public Defender Howard Finkelstein, in one of several quotes that illustrate how the industry’s turmoil is hitting home on Main St.. “They want to write quick things for the blog. It just looks like it’s falling apart to me.”

Writer Bob Norman says the city of Hollywood, which is home to more than 140,000 souls, doesn’t have a full-time beat reporter for the first time in memory. Sunrise (pop. 85,000) is also almost uncovered. “The state of journalism in Broward has been decimated,” Norman writes. This has put government officials in the odd position of mourning the loss of the same watchdogs who used to make them miserable.

“The newspapers used to be the watchdogs of the government, and people relied on them to tell the truth,” says Sunrise Commissioner Sheila Alu. “Now they’re just filled with advertisements.” But perhaps reflecting the love/hate relationship elected officials have with the fourth estate, she adds, “Believe me, we’re fine with it.”

But Jim McDermott isn’t. The Democratic Congressman from the state of Washington is mad as hell about the possible closure of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer and he intends to do something about it. McDermott, who is also a senior member of House Ways and Means Committee, says in a guest column in the P-I that perhaps we should steal a page from the UK and let more of our newspapers operate as nonprofits. “The tax code might have a direct bearing on developing a new business model for the newspaper business nationwide,” he says. In other words, if all those newspaper conglomerates would be willing to convert to nonprofit status, the government could help them out. Tell that to the folks at National Public Radio, which cut 7% of its workforce and cancelled several programs last month.

McClatchy Watch points to an analysis of recent investigative reporting at the Kansas City Star that cites glaring holes in the story. It’s probably not the reporter’s fault, the writer points out. Writer Eric Adler is a seasoned pro. But the lack of news and copy editors caused some basic questions to go unanswered.

Turnover Epidemic

The industry’s downturn is taking its toll on top management. The New York Times documents editor and publisher turnover at top US titles and says it’s out of control. In fact, 19, of the 20 largest newspapers in the country have changed their top editors this decade. The next to go will be Ken Paulson, who leaves USA Today in February.

Editors and publishers are under unprecedented pressure to do more with less, the Times reports, and angry CEOs are quick to boot them out when they fail. Editors, in particular, are preoccupied with revenues and income statements. “My involvement in business concerns went from something like 15 percent of my time to about 50 percent,” says Paul Steiger, who retired in 2007 as managing editor of The Wall Street Journal, and who now heads the nonprofit journalism foundry ProPublica. The turnover may be necessary. A lot of executives who were successful in good times have been like deer in the headlights when faced with the need to slash and burn through their business.

Maybe the problem is consolidation? From the Media Reform Information Center (via Derek Gilbert):

Miscellany

Carlos Slim, the world’s richest man, may increase his stake in The New York Times Co., according to Reuters. Slim already owns 6.4% of the company, a stake that has fallen by more than half in the past five months. But a source says he’s in it for the long term and is ready to give the embattled Ochs Sulzberger family a vote of confidence by helping them to pay off a $400 million debt that comes due in May. The good news, says Reuters: “Slim, 68, became one of the world’s richest men by placing heavy bets on hard-hit companies.”

Citing a 40% decline in revenue since 2006, the beleaguered San Diego Union-Tribune is getting creative with expense cuts. Hourly workers will have to take one or two days without pay in February and March, merit raises will be frozen, company contributions to 401(k) accounts will be eliminated for this year and employees will pay more for health insurance. The Union-Tribune has been for sale since July and while there have been some interested local buyers, no one has yet named a price.

Ogden Newspapers has eliminated several positions at its Intelligencer and Wheeling News-Register papers in West Virginia. True to the spirit of full disclosure, the publisher isn’t revealing any more information.

Clear Channel Communications isn’t a newspaper company, but its plans to lay off 1,500 employees command attention because Clear Channel is such a leading indicator for the advertising industry. In addition to dominating outdoor (billboard) advertising nationwide, the company owns a portfolio of radio stations, making its difficulties a microcosm of the US advertising market. The layoffs amount to about 7% of the workforce.

And Finally…

It isn’t every day you get cited in The New Yorker, but Jill Lepore leads off a piece on the newspaper industry’s troubles with a reference to the Death Watch this week. We weren’t be able to set aside the time to read and digest this 14-screen epic on Monday morning but will get to it soon. Guess we’re stuck with the R.I.P. column now…

Last night I attended a dinner hosted by the Boston Globe for the stated purpose of gaining insight from a small group of new-media enthusiasts about its Boston.com website. The evening turned into a wide-ranging discussion about the future of the Globe itself, with no clear consensus emerging. I was struck by the vision that the Globe showed when it launch Boston.com 13 years ago and how that vision was later clouded by conventional newspaper wisdom.

Boston.com was originally intended to be a destination site for residents of the Boston area.  It was launched at a time when nearly every metro daily was going online, most under their own brands.  The Globe took a different approach: Boston.com would be branded and focused on a region rather than an existing print property. The Globe even enlisted some local media partners to contribute content and share in the profits. Those partners have mostly fallen away over the years, but the vision of the newspaper’s website as a geographic focal point was a precursor of the “hyper-local” concept that’s so popular in the industry today.

Blurred Vision

That vision didn’t carry through, though. With news editors running the show, Boston.com over the years increasingly looked like the front page of the Globe. National and international headlines shared the home page with local copy and the site lost its regional distinctiveness. Suburban bureaus were axed in the name of cost savings.  As a resident of a nearby town, I personally found that my information needs were better met by small sites that were tightly focused on topics or regions that matter to me.

Now the Globe is trying to get back some of the distinctiveness of Boston.com.  There’s no question that the site is more local today than it has been in years, but the online landscape has changed as well.  Some of the questions that came up during the meeting:

Does a website even matter anymore? So many people get their news through feeds and aggregators that the idea of a website as a destination may be outmoded.

Is brand important? Maybe The New York Times brand is, but does the Boston Globe‘s brand strike enough of a chord in people’s minds to distinguish its value?  Brand may be the only thing newspapers have left in the long run, so that’s a critical question.

How local does the site need to be? Many communities in the greater Boston area are served well by e-mail lists, community newspapers and even individual bloggers.  How granular does a major metro need to get in order to be truly hyper-local?

Who’s going to do the grunt work? Part of the service that major metro dailies perform is sitting through tedious budget committee meetings and city council sessions. It’s a little-appreciated loss leader for newspapers, but it’s essential to their watchdog role.  What blogger in his or her right mind is going to do that?

In my humble opinion, the Globe should do the following:

• Create Huffington Post-style bureaus in local communities, with news provided by stringers and citizens.  Many reporters for community weeklies make little or no money, so the exposure in the Globe would be an incentive for them.

• Borrow a page from Yelp.com, Going.com and Angie’s List and become the dominant source of buying advice for local products, services and activities.

• Ramp up its custom publishing arm to help local companies become legitimate publishers in their own right.  Many businesses want to take advantage of new media to do this, but their efforts are mostly terrible.

• Treat print as a cash cow and manage it downward gracefully while building new revenue streams.  Further cutbacks are inevitable, but it would be nice to balance that with some growth.

• Take a hatchet to the sales force, focusing on hiring and retaining people with classified advertising experience.  Future revenues are going to come from local businesses, so invest in the people who can sell to them.

The group from the Globe listened attentively and appeared to take the input seriously.  Unfortunately, the barn door has already closed on print and the declining revenue picture offers fewer options for investment with every passing day. But Boston.com is a nice website.

Envisioning a Future Without the Times

Writing in the Atlantic, Michael Hirschorn starts with an outrageous statement: what if The New York Times folds its print newspaper four months from now? Okay, it’s not likely to happen, Hirschorn writes, but the way The New York Times Co. is spiraling downward, the Big Apple’s intelligentsia should prepare for a day when they won’t have a newspaper to read in their SoHo coffee houses.

Hirschorn goes on to present a well-written summary of the changes readers are likely to see as newspapers exit the scene. “Common estimates suggest that a Web-driven product could support only 20 percent of the current staff; such a drop in personnel would (in the short run) devastate The Times’ news-gathering capacity,” he notes, suggesting that international coverage will almost disappear in the process. “Internet purists may maintain that the Web will throw up a new pro-am class of citizen journalists to fill the void, but for now, at least, there’s no online substitute for institutions that can marshal years of well-developed sourcing and reporting experience.”

Ultimately, emerging sources like Huffington Post and Talking Points Memo may create a new model for participatory journalism, but the quality of services they provide will be more erratic and unpredictable that those readers have known in the past. New-media operations needs to maintain low overhead. Huffington “is the prototype for the future of journalism: a healthy dose of aggregation, a wide range of contributors, and a growing offering of original reporting.” Since few of those contributors are paid, what you see is what you get.

For Better or Worse, China Invests in Newspapers

“As international media is contracting, China is going in the other direction,” says Doreen Weisenhaus, a media law professor at the University of Hong Kong, in an opinion piece by Forbes‘ Robyn Meredith, about China’s ambitious plans to expand its international media presence. Meredith says China plans to spend $6.6 billion to build the staffs of China Central TV, People’s Daily and other news organizations both on the mainland and around the world.  US bureaus are planned, among others, and new Chinese-owned, English-language newspapers will be launched in the U.S. and China.

The problem, Meredith says, is that China doesn’t have a free press.  Although controls were loosened somewhat during the 2008 Summer Olympics, there’s no indication that these expanded news organizations will be allowed to say anything that displeases the government. The result could simply be an expansion of the Chinese propaganda machine.  And if someone gets the idea to spend some of that $6.6 billion buying up distressed US newspapers, well, it’s not a pretty thought.

Layoff Log

• Even as it expands its footprint into the US market, the Financial Times is still feeling the pinch. The newspaper will cut 80 positions across its global operations. The British have their own word for this: redundancy. We would still prefer to be laid off than found redundant.
• The Billings Gazette is laying off eight people.  There’s no word on what percentage that is of the total staff size.

Miscellany

We’ve noted several examples of newspapers burying the lead in reporting on their own layoffs.  So give credit to the Seattle Post-Intelligencer for doing the opposite.  Not only did SeattlePI.com cover the announcement of its likely sale or closure in detail, but now the paper’s managing editor, David McCumber, has launched a blog to document the 60 days until decision time. It’s an honest, personal and well-written account of the many thoughts are no doubt going through his mind as the clock ticks away.

Erica Smith, whose Paper Cuts maps mashup is de facto official record of newspaper industry layoffs, has put together a nice list of newspapers that use Twitter. Such a roster is automatically out of date the minute it’s posted, but it gives you a good idea of how various news organizations are segmenting their coverage and also where the list of followers is growing fastest. You can also see who gave up early. BTW, the Paper Cuts counter has been reset for 2009.

Veteran travel editor John Flinn recently took a buyout package from the San Francisco Chronicle. He’s not bitter or angry, but he’s a bit wistful about how the industry’s troubles are affecting his specialty area. Travel scribes are a different breed of feature writer, each with a unique voice and a different way of going about the job. Sadly, they are being replaced by “utility infielders” with their top-10 lists and “charticles.” But Flinn isn’t looking back. He’s hitting the road soon in his VW Westfalia pop-top camper van.

Give-Us-A-Break Department: “The vast majority of Americans believe the U.S. media industry’s coverage of the faltering economy is actually contributing to the economic crisis by ‘projecting fear into people’s minds.’ That’s the finding of a survey of 1,000 U.S. adults released Thursday by Opinion Research Corporation. The survey, which was conducted last month via telephone, found that 77% of respondents believe fear mongering by U.S. media outlets is negatively impacting consumer confidence in the economy.” – MediaPost, 1/2/09.

The Seattle Post-Intelligencer, an institution in the great northwest for 146 years, is for sale. If no buyer is found within 60 days, the paper will close, idling 170 people. Even if a buyer emerges, it’s almost certain that the P-I will end print operations.

The sobering news was delivered by Steven Swartz (left), president of Hearst Corp.’s newspaper division, in an address to P-I employees Friday while police scanners buzzed and phones rang in the background (here’s the video). Swartz didn’t take questions but he didn’t mince words either. “One thing is clear: At the end of the sale process, we do not see ourselves publishing in printed form,” he said. “Since 2000, the P-I has lost money each year, and the losses have…continued to escalate.”

Swartz decisively ruled out any possibility that Hearst would attempt to keep the P-I afloat by combining it with the rival Seattle Times. “It is not our intention to attempt to acquire the Seattle Times,” he told the newsroom.

Seattlepi.com has a lengthy news analysis of the event, including quotes from local dignitaries and readers (“I buy the papers for the puzzles,” says one) and an analysis of the likelihood of rescue. The consensus is that the likehood is slim to none, barring intervention by a Microsoft millionaire.  “Right now there are 30 or more newspapers on the market that are profitable, and they’re not selling. So why would anyone buy a paper that’s losing money?” asks one anonymous executive.

They’re not exactly celebrating across town at the Seattle Times, however. The news story in the crosstown rival is a little more blunt in its assessment: “[T]he venerable newspaper — at least in its printed form — almost certainly will fold, industry observers say.” It also devotes more attention the contractual and legal issues than does the seattlepi.com account, which focuses more on the human impact.

In a related analysis story, the Times acknowledges that its rival’s likely closure will be to its benefit, but that doesn’t equate to prosperity. The two Seattle dailies have worked under a joint operating agreement since 1993 in which the P-I shared in a portion of the profits of its competitor. With that albatross lifted from its shoulders – and with the likelihood that a portion of the P-I‘s 117,000 subscribers will join its subscriber rolls – the development is a relief for the Blethen family, which has been besieged by bad news over the last year. But the financial state of the Times is so dire that its rival’s closure is more likely to guarantee survival than prosperity.  Here’s a list of stories we’ve covered. Search the page for “Seattle Times” for details.

Other coverage

• Martin Langeveld speculates on the possibility of an old-fashioned newspaper war between the Times and a reborn, all-digital PI.
• Mark Potts sees similar potential, particularly if some deep-pocketed Microsoftie steps up to the plate.
• Alan Mutter sees a rough year ahead for two-newspaper towns.