We really must get back to our day job at some point, but this is too damned interesting. We spent the early morning hours scouring our favorite blogs for reaction to yesterday’s blockbuster announcement in Detroit. There was plenty:

Mark Potts likes the Detroit model in concept, saying it could be a test bed for other innovative Gannett micro-destinations like MomsLikeMe and Metromix. But he stresses that the Detroit consortium needs to move with speed and agility to launch new services and not spend too much time fretting about how save print. “As of this week, Detroit may be the nation’s most interesting laboratory for online news,” he writes.

Steve Outing is more pessimistic. While he applauds the reduction in home-delivery frequency, he thinks charging for the Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Saturday editions is a bad idea and that the “digital replica” of the print editions is badder. He’s also disappointed there wasn’t more vision outlined around a mobile strategy. And he thinks the whole plan will be tweaked pretty quickly as reality sets in. He’s probably right.

Poynter Media Business Analyst Rick Edmonds has an exceptionally cogent and impartial analysis of Detroit Media’s chances of success. He notes that daily newspapers typically derive as much as half their ad revenue from Sunday editions and then spread the costs across the rest of the week. The gamble in Detroit is that reader flight precipitated by these changes won’t cancel out the cost-saving benefits.

Newspaper executives have been talking about this idea for five years, but no one has done anything with it because of the much-feared-but-never-tested theory that you don’t mess with the daily news habit. Now Detroit has no choice, and if they can pull it off, they’ll set a course for the entire industry. Edmonds likes their chances. And he adds, perceptively, “An upside is that if readers and advertisers mostly accept the change, that could pave the way to a full flip to online-only several years hence.”

Speaking of the daily news habit, Mark Potts leaves no question about where he stands. “Oh, puh-leeze,” he writes in response to an unnamed Gannett executive’s paean to the virtues of dailiness. “That thinking…is proof that newspapers are still living a fantasy that their products are the centers of their customers’ news and information universe…

It’s simply not that reducing home delivery will drive readers to other sources of news: They’re already there! They’ve been making the switch for years, relying more on the Web…”

BTW, The Detroit Free Press live-blogged the press conference. And you can watch all 42 minutes of it here.

And finally, why aren’t there any female newspaper pundits? Suggestions are welcome.

Miscellany

Canada’s largest newspaper publisher is cutting 10% of its workforce. Sun Media will eliminate 600 positions and restructure its operations in western Canada, Ontario and Quebec. The reasons are all the usual ones everyone else cites. As Mark Hamilton has pointed out, Canada has about one-tenth the population of the US, which should give you an idea of how big this cutback really is.

Veteran newspaper publisher Martin Langeveld has several predictions for 2009. On the whole, he sees newspapers’ prospects improving after a dreadful start. Among his more notable forecasts:

• No other newspaper companies will file for bankruptcy.
• Some major dailies will switch their Sunday package fully to Saturday and drop Sunday publication entirely.
• At least 25 daily newspapers will close outright
• A reporter without an active blog will start to be seen as a dinosaur.

And this one that we didn’t get at all. Please to enlighten:

• Some innovative new approaches to journalism will emanate from Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

From the AP: “The American Society of Newspaper Editors scheduled an April vote in Chicago to become simply the American Society of News Editors. Under the proposed changes, which require membership approval, editors of news Web sites also would be permitted to join, as would leaders of journalism programs.” Jeff Jarvis chuckles.

The Portland Oregonian will stop delivering to homes, stores or news boxes in the Eugene-Springfield area, which is the second largest metro region in the state. So it’s not really the Oregonian so much any more, is it?

The daily weekly Bristol Press in Connecticut will fold in mid-January if a buyer can’t be found. Owner Journal-Register Co. is shopping it and 11 other central Connecticut weeklies. The company shuttered three Philadelphia-area weeklies last week.

Did you know that the Washington Post‘s newsstand price has more than doubled in the last year? It’s true.

“What’s your favorite 21^st-century newspaper innovation?” asks Slate’s Jack Shafer at the tail end of a rather dour essay on the industry’s lack of innovation. His candidates: “The incredibly clever and useful” New York Times Reader, the Times‘ Open API program, the Big Picture at the Boston Globe and Adrian Holovay’s EveryBlock.com. Send him your nominations slate.pressbox@gmail.com.

And Finally

Mark Hamilton pointed us to this cool mashup of the most e-mailed stories from newspapers around the English-speaking world. MostEmailedNews.com is one of those forehead-slappingly simple ideas that you wish you had thought of. It’s the work of a Brooklynite who calls himself Tim Brennan. It consists of only two pages at this point, but who knows where Mr. Brennan will take it. Check it out and give him some link love.

We could almost see the collective eyes rolling in the newsrooms of the Detroit News and Detroit Free Press today as the newspapers’ holding company announced a “bold transformation” that will cut home delivery to three days per week and move the bulk of editorial content online.

The press release from Detroit Media Partnership described the move as “a sweeping set of strategic and innovative changes designed to better meet advertiser and reader needs,” although the reader benefit of delivering fewer issues wasn’t clearly articulated.

It has always struck us as odd that newspapers, whom we count on to cut through the hyperbole of press releases, can sling it with the best of them when their own business is involved.  For a more balanced perspective, read the account in the Detroit News. The comments from Free Press editor Paul Anger also convey a sense of resignation about the shift.

Newsosaur Alan Mutter wastes no time poking holes in the announcement, quoting a former executive saying that the pullback was the only alternative to shutting down the two dailies.  The move is historically notable in light of the fact that the News was once the largest afternoon newspaper in the nation.

Martin Langeveld is generous in calling the pullback “not the best solution…it keeps in place two separate press runs on most days while failing to differentiate the two papers more clearly. And implementation will be a nightmare, I’m afraid,” he says, shrewdly.

Editorial Departments Intact

About 200 people will lose their jobs, or less than 8% of the combined workforce. Cutbacks in the editorial department will be minimal because of the need to maintain “vigorous newsgathering operations and editorial voices,” according to the News account.  Most of the cuts will presumably come in production and operational departments.

Next to scaling back frequency, the most controversial aspect of the restructuring plan will likely be the introduction of a light version of both newspapers to be sold exclusively at newsstands on days when the full edition isn’t published.  Industry sources estimate that less than 40% of the circulation of both newspapers comes from newsstand sales, a fact that raises questions about how advertisers will be charged for running there. On Monday holidays, print circulation may fall close to zero.

A daily electronic edition will also be introduced for people who want to do their printing at home. “These are exact copies of each day’s printed newspaper and can be easily navigated and printed from readers’ computers,” the press release says. This means that the $170 million printing plant that the newspapers built in 2005 will now be nearly idle four days a week while printing is outsourced to the readers.  There is no research we’re aware of that supports the assumption that readers are interested in printing their own newspapers.

Cultural Challenge

The gutsiest dimension of the plan is the commitment to move much of both papers’ newsgathering operations online.  This recognizes the unstoppable forces that are transforming newsgathering organizations around the world.  As we reported here this morning, new Gallup research shows that 31% of US adults now consult the Internet daily for news while 40% read a local newspaper.  The trend lines, however will clearly cross sometime in the next five years, making the Internet the most important news source among US adults.  Only 22% of adults under 30 read a local newspaper daily, Gallup reported

The biggest challenges of all will be cultural.  Newspapers often give lip service to the importance of their websites, but stories still abound about resistance from ink-stained veterans who can’t accept the possibility that a screen can be as important a medium of news delivery as a printed page.  Detroit’s newspapers will now have to compete on foreign turf, adapting their products to the standards and cultural practices of the bloggers that so many of them hate.  It will be interesting to see if the reporters and editors can learn to thrive in a medium that has done them so much damage.

No doubt there will be lots of analysis and reaction to follow. We see that Gannett Blog has logged 70 comments in the first four hours. We’ll keep an eye out. In the meantime, we couldn’t help taking a snapshot of the ad that appeared on the Detroit News‘s account of today’s announcement.  Perhaps a cleansing is exactly what’s needed.

Newspapers have to stop selling ads and start selling audience. Even more importantly, they have to sell what their business customers seek: awareness. That’s best accomplished by engaging many small audiences within the community and monetizing that through ad programs that span multiple channels.

That’s the gist of comments by Stephen Gray, managing director of the American Press Institute’s Newspaper Next project , in an interview with Mark Glaser last week. The piece has caused a stir in the blogosphere because of Gray’s suggestion that newspapers should learn to think of themselves as advertising agencies. In other words, their role could be to direct their customers’ marketing dollars to the channels that work best for the customer, whether the newspaper company owns them or not.

“It’s not just ‘buy banner ads on my news website,'” Gray says. “It’s ‘we can make your business effective on the Internet.’ And that might include doing your website or buying the keywords you should have on Google AdWords for our market.”

Newspaper Next’s three-year project to figure out a strategy for the newspaper business has employed the services of Clayton Christensen, author of The Innovator’s Dilemma, a book that should be required reading for every newspaper executive. The book examines the paradox of successful companies responding ineffectively to changes in their market that ultimately kill their businesses, even though they understand fully the implications of that failure.

Successful newspapers are reinventing themselves as comprehensive sources of local information through whatever channels people use. Gray tells of the experience of the Pocono Record, which sent out a team of reporters to interview local residents and find out what information was difficult for them to find. The paper rejiggered its products to deliver that information and saw print circulation group and Web traffic and sales surge 50%.

As far as what this means for journalists, Gray offers this provocative quote:

“[This is a] watershed moment, when people stop getting information from a [once a day] dropper. We now live on the ocean and can dip in at any time and get whatever we want. So we will spend a lot less time with things that are designed for everyone like news and spend a lot more time proportionately finding solutions for me and what will help me in my life today…I am preaching in the field that newspapers need to visualize themselves becoming the local information utility.”

Gray’s comments are right on the mark, but it’s doubtful that many newspaper executives have the insight or innovation to make the changes he recommends. In Innovator’s Dilemma, Christensen points to numerous examples of executives in highly competitive, fast-changing industries who failed to respond to technology disruption. If the people who ran Digital Equipment Corp. or Novell were unable to accommodate change, why should we believe managers who have overseen comfortable local monopolies for the past several decades will fare any better?

Lee Abrams and friend

Conde Nast Portfolio takes a look at Tribune Co.’s much ballyhooed redesigns and finds that nothing much has changed. New looks-and-feels in Orlando and Ft. Lauderdale have barely budged circulation, which continues to fall. “We can’t find any impact from the redesign,” Norbert Ortiz, the Orlando Sentinel‘s vice president for circulation and consumer marketing, tells Portfolio.

This doesn’t bode well for recent makeovers in Los Angeles and Chicago. Experts debate whether the new designs are radical or just a new coat of paint, with the painters holding the edge: “a distraction,” says Ken Doctor; “seat of the pants” adds Alan Mutter. The story focuses on Tribune chief innovation officer Lee Abrams, who is inexplicably pictured with the cast of Blue Man Group. Abrams invented the album format that revolutionized FM radio back in the 80s, but his innovations in print have been less dramatic. “I wouldn’t call it redesign. I would call it redecoration,” says Alan Jacobson of Brass Tacks Design.

Abrams is quoted asserting that “we really had to work on reclaiming things that newspapers had traditionally owned,” from investigative reporting to election and crime coverage. Oddly, Tribune Co. has slashed editorial staff at most of its papers this year, drastically undercutting their ability to sustain provide such information.

We’ve previously shared our opinion of redesigns (“A Useless Exercise at the Wrong Time”) and see no further need to comment.

New/Old Journalism Clash in Washington Park

Mediashift tell of a new online publication at New York University that’s challenging the school’s 36-year-old campus fixture, Washington Square News (WSN). The venture was launched by three non-journalism majors who were frustrated with what they call WSN’s bland tone and faux objectivity. NYU Local, which is currently configured as a blog, takes a fundamentally different view of impartiality. “Most people who want to be objective tend to disguise their opinions,” says co-editor Lily Quateman says. “Being objective treats readers like idiots and makes them guess.”

WSN Editor-in-Chief, Adam Playford begs to differ, saying his journal will continue to report just the facts and label opinions accordingly. He also says online isn’t a major focus at WSN, which updates its website just once a day. In contract, NYU Local encourages anyone to contribute and makes it possible to do so by any means possible, including cell phone. The staff hopes to move to a social networking platform in order to further encourage community journalism. “The idea of citizen journalism is a massive misnomer,” says 20-year-old co-editor Cody Brown. “Everyone is a citizen and anyone can be a reporter. The term is patronizing.”

The piece, which is written by an NYU junior, highlights the push-pull taking place between old- and new-media models, even within the context of a college-age audience. The fundamental debate is over the question of whether professional reporters are better equipped to tell a story versus thousands of unknown citizens. The fact that the battle is taking place in an institution that’s training the next generation of journalists indicates that this issue will be debated for some time to come.

Layoff Log

• More layoffs are days away at the Baltimore Sun, according to the newspaper’s union. If true, the action would follow by just five months a 100-person downsizing this summer, a cutback that hit the newsroom particularly hard. No word on numbers, but the cuts are expected to be layoffs, not buyouts. The Sun employed 1,400 people before the 100-person cutback last June.
• With five more newsroom layoffs at the New Haven Register, the size of the newsroom staff will have shrunk from 110 to 65 in a decade. The five editors are part of a larger cutback of 20 people announced yesterday. The daily will also shutter Play, an entertainment-oriented weekly. More layoffs are possible in mid-January, when parent Journal Register may fall into default if it can’t make its debt payments. Earlier this week, Journal Register said it would probably close two small Connecticut dailies – the New Britain Herald and the Bristol Press – along with 11 weeklies in the state.
• As expected, the ax has fallen in Tribune Co.’s Washington bureaus. LA Observed reports that Chicago Tribune staffers John Crewdson, Bay Fang, Stephen Hedges, and Aamer Madhani were let go. Earlier eight Los Angeles Times staffers were laid off and acting Tribune acting bureau chief Naftali Bendavid left to join The Wall Street Journal.
• Newhouse is cutting deeply in Michigan. Staff at eight newspapers have been told that massive buyouts are planned and some operations will be consolidated in Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo. There’s no word on numbers, but the Ann Arbor Chronicle account says nearly everyone in the newsroom has been offered a buyout. Production staff has been told that if they don’t take the buyout, they’ll have to work from the Grand Rapids office, which is 130 miles away. Papers in the group include the Grand Rapids Press, Ann Arbor News, Jackson Citizen Patriot, Flint Journal, Bay City Times, Muskegon Chronicle, Saginaw News and the Michigan Business Review. The Ann Arbor paper early announced plans to close its Ypsilanti bureau and to slash pages and sections in an effort to control costs.

Miscellany

Outsell’s Ken Doctor has some encouraging news for newspapers. “It’s a shrinking business that only looks like it is dying,” he tells Media Life. “The U.S. newspaper business will still take in some $40 billion in revenues in 2008.” Doctor believes some papers will close and many may scale back frequency in coming years in order to align expenses with smaller revenues. However, he expects the business to come back, even the devastated classified advertising business. “Forty percent of the newspaper industry is partnering with Yahoo, and we should see a good Yahoo bump in online display ads,” Doctor says. A lot of retraining will be needed, though.

Preliminary research by Middleberg & Associates and the Society of New Communications Research shows that 100% of reporters under 30 agree that new media and communication tools are valuable journalism tools. But only 40% of journalists over 50 year agree with that statement. There is no more change-averse animal than an old newsman. You can still take the survey here.

The Daily Triplicate of Crescent City, Calif. celebrates awards from the California Newspaper Publishers Association by trashing the slipshod tactics most awards programs use to select winners. Its tone might sound a bit snarky, but our experience is that the point is valid.

In case you didn’t see this comment from last week, journalism professor Robert Hodierne at the University of Richmond has been commissioned by American Journalism Review “to survey folks who left the newspaper business under circumstances other than voluntary — laid off, bought out, etc. I’m spreading the word about this survey in every way I can and if you guys could help me spread the word I’d be grateful. Take the survey here.

Newspaper Death Watch editor Paul Gillin is interviewed on The Radio Ecoshock Show about what’s ailing newspapers and what will fill the gap. You can skip the description and listen to the short interview here.

Michael Rosenblum

Here are a couple of interesting ideas about the future of journalism that we thought were worth reading/viewing.

The Online Journalism Blog has clips of video visionary Mark Rosenblum addressing the Society of Editors conference this week. Rosenblum ditched a top job at CBS to go out on his own and demonstrated that a single journalist with a video camera and a Macintosh can duplicate the work of an entire television video team at a tiny fraction of the cost. He has spent the last six years helping organizations like the BBC and the Voice of America reinvent themselves as foundries of video journalism.

Any idiot can operate a video camera, Rosenblum says in colorful and often off-color language. You don’t need news trucks or production teams or half-million-dollar editing consoles. Give reporters a videocam and a Mac, train them how to use the technology and send them out to find stories. They can even work out of their homes. It’s that drop-dead simple. “You are not in the newspaper business,” he says. “You are in the business of going into your communities, finding stories, processing them and delivering them back to your clients and charging advertisers for those eyeballs.”

Rosenblum urges editors to embrace new technologies instead of worrying about how to monetize them first. We’re not going back to the way things were, so move ahead with confidence. Transform your newsrooms into multimedia centers and decentralize your organization. “You are magnets for talent,” he tells the editors. So do something with it. “You will not survive unless you have the courage to embrace this new technology and go for it all,” he concludes. There are three videos. We found the first to be most illuminating.

Maegan Carberry files a report from the Web 2.0 Summit for Editor & Publisher, scolding the newspaper industry for not leading change and enabling conversation between their readers. “What is a journalist if not someone who hopes to enable others with the information they need to solve the problems of our time? To connect individual citizens with their communities? Shouldn’t newspapers be the ones championing this enterprise?” she writes.

Carberry tells of election night coverage that combined Twitter, Digg and Current TV to enable viewers to effectively control the information they were consuming. Too many mainstream media reporters still regard these tools as something they use to enhance their work, she says. What they don’t realize is that the tools  are central to the experience that media companies need to give their constituents. She also has a nice list of interesting Twitter pundits to follow.

Miscellany

Canadian correspondent Mark Hamilton rounds up the latest financial news from media companies north of the border. It isn’t pretty. Another Canadian, National Post‘s Jonathan Key, outlines the three print models that will survive the newspaper collapse. Okay, we won’t keep you in suspense. They are: business media (The Economist), premium upscale media (The New Yorker) and hyper-local media (your community newspaper).

Steve Outing quotes a missive he received from a retired management consultant whose observations should be relevant to the industry honchos gathered behind closed doors in Reston tomorrow: “Newspapers are cutting staff and in so doing, totally curbing their capability to produce a quality product and thereby even have a chance to survive. The result is an ever deepening and ever tightening death spiral.”

The Charlotte Greensboro News & Record has offered all its employees a buyout in an effort to reduce its staff by 8 to 10%, according to a haiku-like story on the paper’s website.

The Associated Press is launching two youth-oriented mobile websites via Virgin Mobile. AP Entertainment and CUBI (“Can You Believe It?”) will offer the “latest film, TV, and music news,” and “off-the-beaten-path news from around the world,” respectively.

Always-provocative Editor & Publisher columnist Steve Outing proposes that publishers need to change their definition of news. Those Twitter and Facebook feeds that stream information about what your friends are having for lunch? That’s news, Outing says. Only most professional editors don’t consider it that. If information doesn’t have a wire-service imprimatur or at least the watermark of a professional writer, it doesn’t quality as news.

But guess what? Customers don’t care. To them, advice from friends is at least as valuable as advice from a news pro. The popularity of social networks and Twitter attests to that. Professional publishers need to tap in to this phenomenon, but they’re too addicted to conventional definitions of news to make that happen, Outing suggests. They’re missing the boat and the market is passing them by.

Outing nails it. For a great perspective on the popularity of social networking read this piece on “ambient intimacy” from the International Herald-Tribune. Clive Thompson explains the value of sustaining relationships through casual awareness of what others are doing.

Twitter and the Facebook News Feed bring new breadth to this concept, enabling people to glimpse others’ lives through occasional insights into their everyday activities. This intimacy becomes addictive. People who initially reject the News Feed as too intrusive or the constant stream of Twitter chatter as too overwhelming often find themselves drawn in to the point that monitoring the stream becomes engrossing. It’s an experience that appeals to basic human instincts.

The 18-year-olds who log on to Facebook 15 times a day are telling us something. Their friends network is their news stream. As we all know by now, they are rejecting packaged media in favor of a jumbled, unpredictable gush of information from all kinds of sources. They choose who to listen to. If publishers aren’t in the news stream, they’re irrelevant. Outing is proposing that publishers could be the source of the news stream, mixing packaged content from professional sources with ambient chatter from individuals. Of course, Facebook is already pretty well entrenched, but it’s not very localized. Publishers could still transform their websites into something more than a print archive with a few blogs wrapped around it.

Miscellany

More layoffs at the Boston Globe. This time, 42 people in the advertising, circulation, marketing and production departments lost their jobs, or a little less than 2% of the 2,450-person workforce. That’s a bloodbath, says the hyperbolic headline in rival Boston Herald, which should know about bloodbaths. No newsroom jobs were cut. The ranks of the idled reportedly include several senior managers, although no one named names. The Boston Phoenix has the memo from Globe publisher Steve Aimsley. The Globe‘s website is now also reporting to the Globe instead of to The New York Times, which kind of makes sense. And in unrelated news, the newspaper’s truck driver’s union rejected an offer of a 5% pay cut and less vacation. The Globe reported the fourth-worst percentage circulation decline among the top 25 US newspapers in the most recent numbers from the Audit Bureau of Control.

The Redding (Calif.) Record Searchlight is laying of 12 people, or about 6% of its workforce. No newsroom jobs were affected and the publisher says the paper’s financial position is strong. Read the delightfully random comments from readers, who attribute the layoffs to everything from the Bush administration to yellow journalism, although not to the 85-lb. salmon carcass that is the paper’s most e-mailed story of the day.

Reuters says the outlook is worsening for Canadian newspapers. Ad revenue at the Toronto Star fell 8.5% in the most recent quarter on top of an 18% jump in newsprint prices. Canwest, which is Canada’s biggest publisher of daily newspapers, can cut back print runs of the National Post daily in western provinces. The Canadian dollar is off more than 20% in the past year, which can’t help.

There are rumors that the Jackson (Miss.) Clarion-Ledger is planning more layoffs in early December, even as it invests in a new lifestyle website that will show pictures of all the bars in town. Jackson Free Press Editor Donna Ladd sums up: “So there’s money for drunk pictures, but not for news coverage.”  Well, what the heck is wrong with that, Donna? Commenters pile on. Ladd says the C-L Scroogishly cancelled the $50 holiday bonus and is asking staffers to pay for coffee while hardwood floors are installed in the publisher’s office.

Did you know US News & World Report is going to go monthly? We didn’t even know it was still around.

News After Newspapers says what we’ve been saying for two years about the outlook for the newspaper industry, but the author sees hope in a new class of product.

And Finally…

This isn’t news, at least as professional editors define it, but the Top 10 Strangest Coincidences on 2Spare.com is worth the waste of time. In fact, the whole site is a time sink. You can get lost for hours. We don’t know how much of the information is true, but this is the Internet and you shouldn’t believe what you read, anyway.

Last week, I spent a day speaking to two college classes about the changing media industry. Both groups consisted of juniors and seniors, nearly all of them majoring in public relations. These people should be heavy consumers of information, and they are. When I asked the roughly 45 students how many of them read a newspaper online every day, nearly ever hand went up. But when I asked how many subscribe to a newspaper, only a single student raised a hand.

Oh, they read newspapers. They read Metro, the local entertainment weekly, the college daily and even the major metro dailies on occasion. The difference is that they don’t subscribe. They consume information when it’s convenient to them, and so much information is being pushed at them all the time that they have plenty of choices about what to read. The concept of paying to subscribe to something is foreign to these people in their early 20s. Why pay for what you can get for free?

Some publishers may be adapting to this new reality and paring back their paid subscriptions accordingly. Back in April, the Audit Bureau of Control changed its rules to enable publishers to declare as paid circulation copies that they sold for as little as a penny. At the time, some people predicted the beginning of a new circulation war. But the opposite has apparently happened. The Wall Street Journal reports that the current trend at big papers is to manage circulation intelligently, focusing on hitting the highest-quality readers at the best time of day. The story cites the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and the Arizona Republic as two papers that have cut circulation to the applause of advertisers, who didn’t see much value in distributing to readers who live so far away that they would never be candidates to come in to their stores. And publishers do see growth potential in circulation of Sunday issues, which arrive when people are most receptive to reading them.

Involuntary declines, continue, though. The two New York tabloids continue to post ongoing readership losses, in part because of price increases announced earlier this year to offset the rising cost of newsprint. Fortunately, newsprint prices are stabilizing now, in large part due to decreases in demand brought about by the slowing global economy.

Pressure to Go Private

Many years ago, for reasons that are unknown to us, major newspaper publishers began reporting monthly, rather than quarterly earnings results. Today, that practice has become a millstone around the industry’s neck, casting a public spotlight on the industry’s woes with painful frequency.

While reporting on the latest round of earnings declines, James Erik Abels of Forbes begins to ponder the once-imponderable: maybe it’s time to think about the end of the newspaper industry. The business model isn’t viable any more, Abels says, and the recession will hit hard at its base of local advertisers. The piece suggests that the pressure of earnings comparisons is only making matters worse by publicizing the industry’s problems. That’s one reason some equity managers are encouraging owners like the Sulzbergers to take their companies private: it enables them to restructure outside of the glare of publicity.

Newspaper brands have considerable value, which is one reason some private investors are lining up to buy them, Abels says. Relaunched with smaller staffs and more nimble businesses, newspapers would have a leg up on online startups because of their reader loyalty. It’s just that the process of getting to that smaller staffing model is to difficult to manage in public view.

Superblogger Robert Scoble has a proscription for the newspaper industry: experiment a lot and do it quickly. Scoble thinks every reporter should have a camera phone that’s capable of taking high-quality video images and should be able to broadcast events in real-time just like television does. He also says people who think quality journalism is dead should look at TalkingPointsMemo, Pro Publica and Topix, which are building profitable businesses based upon good reporting. He also says keep an eye on Spot.us, a startup that will fund journalism based upon the stuff people want to read.

Layoff Log

• Having recently extracted major union concessions by threatening to go out of business, The Newark Star-Ledger rewarded its staff by eliminating 40% of their jobs. Most of the reductions will be achieved through buy-outs, though, and management had told the unions back in August that it needed substantial cuts to keep the paper viable. Huffington Post says the actual newsroom losses will be closer to 45% of the 334 editorial employees. The magnitude of the cutback is impressive eye-popping at a time when most newspapers are still trimming around the edges. However, the publisher said it believes the Star-Ledger can return to profitability when the changes are complete.
• Speaking of trimming around the edges, A.H. Belo is doing everything it can short of layoffs to tighten the belt. The suffering publisher announced it will freeze salaries, reduce employee retirement contributions, suspend its dividend, trim capital spending and lower the fees it pays to its board of directors. The company also renegotiated its deal with creditors. “It’s probably not going to get better until 2010, if then,” says industry analyst John Morton., a newspaper industry analyst in Maryland.
• As LA Observed predicted last week, the Los Angeles Times laid off 75 journalists, or about 10% of newsroom staff. That comes on top of 150 job cuts in the newsroom this past summer. The site has the dour memo from Editor Russ Stanton.
• Randy Turner is the latest blogger to point out the contradiction of newspapers reporting everyone else’s layoffs but burying their own. He cites the Joplin Globe, a Missouri paper that he says laid off 15 staffers last week but has said nothing about it since. And he provides a laundry list of layoffs at other local businesses that the Globe has covered in recent months.

More papers are dropping the Associated Press. The Columbus Dispatch becomes the latest media entity to just say no to the wire service, following by just days Tribune Co.’s blockbuster announcement that it would exit the consortium. The AP’s costs are a sore spot with budget-challenged publishers, as are its tendency to compete with them online.  Editors are frustrated by new rules that require them to insert tags on stories they contribute to the wire service, which the AP then publishes through its numerous Internet channels.  The editors complain that revenue-generating traffic is thus diverted to the AP from their own web sites.

The AP claims new pricing will cut newspapers costs by about 10% beginning next year and that it will share ad revenues with members.  Publishers, though, say the lower prices aren’t enough. The AP’s fees can exceed $1 million annually at some newsrooms, which is about the same cost as 12 to 15 salaries.  In light of the need to cut costs, newspapers are coming up with creative alternatives, including regional consortia and citizen contributions. The New York Times account says defectors will also turn to less expensive newswires to cover the void left by the AP.

Pundits Disagree on Media’s Future

The director of digital at the UK’s Guardian Media Group forecast two years of “carnage” in the traditional media industry.  Emily Bell said she could see five national newspapers in Britain going under during the next two years as well as “the regional press heading for complete market failure.”  Even successful media companies will have to prepare for a long period of losses, she said.  The culprit is undifferentiated content driven by the traditional role of media as representatives of their customers, rather than participants in a conversation.  The only way to avoid irrelevance is to change this mindset, Bell believes.

However, the global leader for entertainment and media practice at PriceWaterhouseCoopers in Hong Kong begs to differ. “Traditional media isn’t dead yet and won’t be for the next five years, ” Marcel Fenez told the World Association of Newspapers readership conference, Despite its rapid growth, digital advertising will represent just 10 per cent of total advertising for newspapers by 2012, he said. He forecast that global newspaper advertising (including digital) will grow 2.9 percent to $136.8 billion during that time.  Part of traditional media’s advantage is its willingness to collaborate, he noted.  By not trying to “gouge the other guy’s eyes out,” media companies can come up with the kind of creative partnerships that stymie other industries.

Another speaker at the same conference danced on the hyper-local theme. Randy Bennett, vice president for business development at the Newspaper Association of America, said newspapers need to fight back against stagnant readership growth by becoming the destination of choice for local activity. “We must be a trusted source for all relevant content created by us, or others – professionals or amateurs,” Bennett said. “We must give users a tool for extracting the content they need and create a platform for interactive conversation.” Is there a business model in all this?  Bennett admitted he was unaware of one but expected that large sites would come up with something

When Bad News is Good News

Publishers know that bad news sells, and new data from Nielsen Online proves that point. The service’s tally of unique visitors at the nation’s top newspaper Web sites in September showed that all but one (the Village Voice) were up by double- or even triple- digit percentages. The big winner was the Anchorage Daily News, which enjoyed a 928% spike in unique visitors, presumably due to interest in native daughter and Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin.

The irony of the financial crisis is that it has also been good for some segments of the publishing business. Reuters says business media are enjoying a short-term lift in readership and ad dollars, thanks to all the attention being drawn by Wall Street’s financial crisis. The question is what happens after reader interest cools? The long-term slowdown in advertising in conventional media is likely to continue and perhaps worsen beginning in the first quarter of 2009, experts predict.

Miscellany

News Corp. Chairman Rupert Murdoch says the unprecedented global financial crisis presents a buying opportunity for his company. Speaking at the company’s annual meeting on Friday, Murdoch said News Corp. just turned in its sixth straight year of record earnings and is sitting on $5 billion in cash, making it well prepared for further downturns in credit markets. The company has also renegotiated its credit lines to allow for longer payback periods.

No one, including News Corp. has been left untouched by the mess on Wall St., Murdoch said.  ”It has weakened advertising markets and beaten down our share price,” the 77-year-old CEO said. “We have prepared ourself well for this day.” With next year presenting “unprecedented challenges,”  News Corp. will look for acquisitions in growth businesses. India, eastern Europe and Asia have the most promise, Murdoch said. He also expressed “great confidence in our future,” apparently referring to News Corp.’s future, not necessarily everybody else’s.

A team of enterprising publishers in the UK has produced a four-page newspaper created entirely by hand. “Every word and every image and every mark of any kind in The Manual was drawn by a team of volunteers – mostly illustrators,” a blog entry says. “Each copy of the paper has been numbered in a limited edition of around 100.” The experiment foresees a day when “handmade qualities can transform newspapers from ‘junk’ to collectable.” Sounds like a neat idea.

Just two months after Puerto Rico lost its only daily English-language newspaper, a new suitor has stepped in. The Puerto Rico Daily Sun will be available starting this Wednesday by subscription and at newsstands. The paper will be staffed largely by members of the now-defunct San Juan Star. Few details were released. The publisher said an upcoming press conference would reveal more.

The Seattle Times Co. may be close to selling its newspapers in Maine, but that probably won’t save it from having to make deep cuts early in the new year.  Al Diamon, Maine’s most widely-read media critic, reports that “two informed sources in the newspaper industry” says a company called Maine Media Investments could buy the Blethen Maine Newspapers by the end of the month. The chain has been an albatross for the Seattle Times, which has enough of its own problems on the opposite coast. Diamon quotes sources as saying more deep cuts are expected in January.

The new executive editor of the Merced Sun-Star in California’s heartland mixes metaphors and crows about his performance at the free throw line in one of the more delightfully clueless homespun essays we’ve seen by a scribe in a while. Our favorite line is this drug reference (emphasis added): “The newsroom…is down to seeds and stems in terms of numbers of reporters, photographers, copy editors and sports writers.” Someone should put Mike Tharp in touch with the Merced County Sheriff’s department, which destroyed about six tons of marijuana plants the previous day.

Into the perfect storm of Internet competition, spiraling newsprint costs and the decline of classified advertising has come a fourth factor: probable worldwide recession. It couldn’t happen at a worse time for the beleaguered newspaper industry.

Newspaper advertising revenue is expected to decline a record 11.5% to $40.1 billion this year, the Newspaper Association of America says. The organization does see light at the end of the tunnel; it’s predicting that the nosedive will level off a bit in 2009. But such forecasts should probably be taken with a grain of salt, considering that no one knows the full extent of the current financial crisis or the likelihood that worldwide government interventions will succeed. Also consider, at Tim Windsor points out in a comment on the E&P blog, that the NAA initially forecast just a 1.2% decline in business this year.

The 11.5% revenue drop would be the largest the association has seen since it started tracking results 58 years ago, and it reflects the continuing collapse of the classified advertising market at the hands of Craigslist et. al. In fact, the NAA expects classified revenues to fall from $14.1 billion in 2007 to just $9.4 billion in 2009, a 33% crash in a business that is already off by 50% from its peak. Retail advertising is expected to decline about 10% and national advertising should drop 13% in the same time period. Online revenue won’t pick up much of the slack: the NAA forecasts meager growth of 1.8% this year.

Media Life magazine catches up with David T. Clark, senior research analyst for publishing and advertising at Deutsche Bank Securities, to get his take on the wreckage. Here are a few quotes:

“This is a pivotal time for the newspaper-retailer relationship…Share losses now will be amplified when we emerge from this downturn.”

“Newspapers must be perceived as a marketplace in which the advertising is considered content, not clutter.”

“I think we’ve got at least several more quarters of very steep industry ad revenue declines to go before we see much improvement.”

“Newspapers do digital pretty well, but…it doesn’t look like a viable business model will emerge in time to save some metro dailies…They are at the bleeding edge of the structural issues the industry faces…Metro papers over-index to classified advertising, which is disappearing fast….They need to variabilize as much of their costs as possible, get all of that old media hardware off of the balance sheet…Tough to sell a printing press these days, though.”

Desert Storm

The East Valley Tribune of Mesa, Ariz. will make massive cutbacks, laying off 142 people, or about 40% of its staff. The daily will also withdraw coverage from nearby Scottsdale and Tempe and scale back to four days a week, most likely Wednesday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The print format will also be scaled back to two  sections ‑ one for local news and one for sports, entertainment and late-breaking news.The Tribune has a paid and free distribution of around 100,000. It’s owned by Freedom Communications, a publisher of more than 100 mostly small newspapers and a few big ones, including the Orange County Register. Ray Stern analyzes the impact on the valley, including the huge loss the cutbacks represent to the city of Scottsdale, which may become the US’ largest major metro area without a daily newspaper.He also lists some of the prominent journalists who will be exiting the scene.

Spokane Spokesman-Review Girds for More Cuts

The Spokane Spokesman-Review, whose editor quit last week over cutbacks in his staff, named Gary Graham to the post. Publisher W. Stacey Cowles took some questions from staffers and offered little optimism about the immediate future. His responses are noted on a staff blog. Highlights:

• The S-R “is planning for the possibility of not having” the Associates Press in the future.
• Potential cost-cutting measures include a reduction in trim size reduction (next June), dropping some circulation routes in outlying areas, reconfiguring press runs and office space consolidation. The paper is likely to close its Spokane Valley bureau.
• “The company would like more flexibility in compensation of newsroom employees, more flexibility to change compensation to reflect market rates.” In other words, pay cuts are likely.

Tumbleweeds in Albany

The New York Times writes of the impact of staff cuts on the press corps covering goings-on in Albany. With the closure of the New York Sun last week, five newspapers have exited the state capitol in less than two years. The organization of statehouse journalists in Albany has seen its ranks dwindle from 59 members in 1981 to 42 journalists last year. “With the exception of Buffalo, Watertown and Albany itself, no city outside the New York metropolitan area has a newspaper with a dedicated, full-time correspondent in the Capitol,” writes Jeremy Peters. Wire-service bureau reporters don’t offer the local angle that correspondents used to provide. Reporters who once jostled for desk space now have their pick. “It’s like tumbleweed should be blowing around here,” says one reporter. Observers fret that the cutbacks are leaving legislators to play in their own private sandbox withoutthe limits of citizen oversight.

Layoff Log

• More cutbacks at the Los Angeles Times. LA Observed is reporting that the paper will cut 75 positions, which would bring total newsroom staffing to about 650. That’s down from a high of nearly 1,200 in 2001. The reductions will be achieved through buyouts, if possible, but staffers will be told that this round of cutbaks will be their last chance to get a package of two weeks’ pay for each year of service. Media Bisto says the Washington bureau will be cut back right after the election.  American Thinker comments“More and more unemployed left wing journalists are joining the sans culottes. History teaches us that unemployed intellectuals are fodder for revolutionary movements.” (via Edward Padgett)
• The Cleveland Plain Dealer plans to cut 38 unionized newsroom jobs, or about 13 percent of the newsroom’s staff. Most of the jobs being eliminated are held by Guild members. Employees have until Nov. 20 to accept a buyout offer, with layoffs expected to make up the difference. The Plain Dealer, which has 299 newsroom employees, cut 64 journalist jobs in 2006. The actual reductions are somewhat below the rumors of 20% cutbacks that circulated in June.
• Boulder’s Daily Camera is moving all of its remaining printing and packaging operations from Boulder to Denver and laying off 29 more workers by the end of October.The paper will now be printed at the Denver Newspaper Agency facilities, where the Denver Post and the Rocky Mountain News have recently taken up residence.

And Finally…

The industry downturn has claimed one of the world’s most famous journalists – and he isn’t even a real person. Rick Redfern, the resident ink-stained wretch of the Doonesbury comic strip for more than 30 years, has decided to accept a buyout. “Redfern leaves with utter resignation, apparently having reasoned that he has no real newsroom options,” writes The Washington Post‘s Michael Cavna. “Thanks for the 30-plus years, Rick. By the fourth panel — in the style of a true newspaperman — you always had the perfect line.”

Philip Meyer

Philip Meyer, whose 2004 book The Vanishing Newspaper: Saving Journalism in the Information Age, is often credited as being the first to predict the newspaper industry’s demise, writes in American Journalism Review of the dwindling options available to newspaper owners. In a superbly readable essay, Meyer frames the industry’s plight in historical contexts ranging from Gutenberg’s displacement of town criers to the opportunities modern agriculture created for packaged food makers. At the heart of the problem is one statistic we hadn’t seen before: “Classified ads moved from 18 percent of newspaper advertising revenue in 1950 to 40 percent in 2000.” Craig Newmark came along and poof! There are plenty of other Craig Newmarks out there waiting their turns, Meyer writes, ominously.

The good news is that there’s precedent for these problems. Meyer suggests that the saving grace for newspapers – and probably the only one they have left – is community influence. That’s where local news organizations enjoy a level of trust that online wannabes can’t approach. But by community, “I don’t mean stenographic coverage of public meetings, channeling press releases or listing unanalyzed collections of facts,” Meyer writes. It means contextual reporting that delivers useful and actionable advice. Medium is unimportant, as is frequency. Meyer infers that the seven-day-a-week mandate is a liability in a time of fluid and inexpensive information. Discerning readers will pay for information that speaks to their specific interests, he proposes, but newspapers have got to start by rejecting their all-things-to-all-people philosophy.

Tribune Co.: One Big Litigious Family

A group of current and former Tribune Co. employees has filed a class action suit against CEO Sam Zell, questioning the tactics Zell used to acquired Tribune Co. in a highly leveraged deal, his administration of the employee stock option plan, his decisions regarding layoffs and other operational issues. The plaintiffs include one current Tribune employee – Los Angeles Times auto critic Dan Neil – and five former employees, all journalists. They’re represented by noted class-action lawyers Joseph Cotchett and Philip Gregory.  In a statement, Zell called the suit “frivolous and unfounded.” In an e-mail to employees, he lamented the plaintiffs’ decision to air dirty laundry in public and concluded, “We are partners. We need to act like it.” Tell Zell characteristically minces no words in attacking the boss: “We have no power. We have no say. We have never been consulted in a single action that you or any of your cronies have taken in dismantling the Tribune Co. So stop f*****g call me your partner.” Guess who won’t be sharing a table at the company picnic.

Layoff Log

• The St. Louis Post-Dispatch has laid off between 17 and 20 people, depending on which account you read. The situation is particularly unpleasant in the Gateway City because the cuts come during talks with the Newspaper Guild about an extension to the current union contract. In fact, the Guild walked away from the bargaining table, charging that newspaper management and consistently pushed ahead the timeframe for the layoffs as a bargaining tactic. Among the victims is Patrick M. O’Connell, the newspaper’s primary crime reporter.
• The bloodletting may not be over at The McClatchy Co. CEO Gary Pruitt was quoted last week saying, “It may get worse before it gets better.” McClatchy is still reeling from the $2 billion in debt it took on to finance the 2006 acquisition of Knight-Ridder, a deal that still has questionable long-term value. “It’s hard to claim it’s a good deal when you see the stock performance,” Pruitt said. McClatchy has already cut its workforce by 20% and halved its shareholder dividend. McClatchy Watch has the details.
• Tulsa World posts a note to readers about consolidating Sunday sections that presages staff cuts. It notes that the staff has been working “to conserve news space and reduce the overall page count of the newspaper by writing shorter stories,” and that, “We are proud of the fact that we have the largest news staff of any media in our area.” Prior experience would indicate that a large staff and a shrinking news hole don’t coexist nicely. Check out the comments on the story, which mostly rip the paper for cutting back on space.

Miscellany

Valleywag observes that the combined wealth of Google’s co-founders now exceeds the value of the entire US newspaper industry. Larry Page and Sergey Brin are now worth $16 billion each, compared to the $20 billion valuation Wall Street assigns to newspapers and their subsidiaries, including test prep and broadcasting businesses. 

And Finally…

Our Google Alert filter caught John McIntyre in its webbing this week, and we quickly added him to our RSS reader. McIntyre is director of the copy desk at the Baltimore Sun and a former president of the American Copy Editors Society {note: “Editors” is not possessive). His meticulously edited blog features such gems as a recent entry on the mechanics of courtesy titles such as “Mr.” and “Professor” – did you know that incarcerated criminals aren’t entitled to be called “Mr.” but may regain the title once probation has expired? -and a clever paragraph on last week’s National Punctuation Day that consists of a single sentence in which McIntyre uses all 13 forms of punctuation. Newspaper editors know that nothing elicits more reader comment than issues of spelling, punctuation and usage; ergo, McIntyre has his fingers on the pulse of the readers.