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“The magnitude of the recent declines is extraordinary for a non-recession period and provides concrete evidence, in our view, that the share shift from print to online in the publishing industry is accelerating,” says analyst Peter Appert in a research note that sharply reduced earnings estimates for the newspaper industry as a whole and singled out McClatchy and NYTimes Co. as stocks to sell. The story appears in Editor & Publisher.
The analyst forecast it’ll be at least five years before online revenue equals print revenue in the industry. On a more positive note, he predicts, “Ultimately, we believe newspaper publishers will re-emerge as very healthy and dominant players in the local media marketplace.”
Let’s hope so, but the transition could take longer than five years, and the eventual leveling of revenues will be due as much to declines in print as to growth in online. Whatever form the transition takes, it’s going to be ugly and very painful.
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