Golin Harris CEO Fred Cook gave this quote from a Chicago Sun-Times columnist, whom he preferred not to identify, in a session at the PRSA International conference today: “Newspapers aren’t dying. Our readers are.”

Golin Harris CEO Fred Cook gave this quote from a Chicago Sun-Times columnist, whom he preferred not to identify, in a session at the PRSA International conference today: “Newspapers aren’t dying. Our readers are.”

Dark day at the BBC as staff learn their fate – The Independent, Oct. 18, 2007

Big Weeklies Sputter, Smaller Pubs Soar – MediaPost, Sept. 04, 2007

[It’s not a good time to be a broad, general-purpose magazine. Time and Newsweek circulation is trending steadily down, while U.S. News’ numbers are falling precipitously. Meanwhile, Europe’s The Economist and The Week are growing nicely.

What’s strange about all this is that both of the European magazines publish longish, weighty and thoughtful articles. Since the USAToday-ization of the media began in 1984, conventional wisdom has been that the only way to keep readers was to lighten, shorten, colorize and sap editorial content of as much depth as possible. Now it appears that growth is shifting to publications with some gravity. Maybe we’re beginning to lose our appetite for cartoon infographics? – Ed.]

Morgan Stanley Sells Entire New York Times Stake – Bloomberg, Oct. 17, 2007

60 Employees Retiring from Post-Dispatch – STLtoday, Sept. 28, 2007
“Editor Arnie Robbins said, ‘I’m sad that we’re losing colleagues that have such wisdom and institutional knowledge. But I’m convinced that we will continue to produce strong journalism with a strong public service mission.'”

How to Survive Newspaper Layoffs – eHow.com
[Erin Auerbach offers some tongue-in-cheek advice for journalists who have to prepare for the grim layoff reaper. – Ed.]

Express-News offers worker buyouts – MySA.com, Oct. 17, 2007 Annotated
“The newspaper’s goal is to eliminate 40 to 50 positions ‘through a combination of incentives and a hiring freeze,’ Express-News President and Publisher Tom Stephenson said in an e-mail to employees. The Express-News has between 1,000 and 1,100 employees”

‘Journal Sentinel’ Slashes Workforce By 35 to 50 – Editor & Publisher, Oct. 2, 2007

[That’s 3.5% of the workforce, which isn’t exactly a “slash.” Voluntary severance being offered. Layoffs only if absolutely necessary. – Ed.]

Flint Journal offering employee buyouts – ABC12.com, Oct. 15, 2007 Annotated

“‘I think what’s going to happen is the Flint Journal will go toward free lancers and a lot of times there might not be people who have a personal stake in the community, so some of the stories aren’t going to be as powerful.’

“A similar buyout offer is being made to employees of the Detroit Free Press and Detroit News, a sign the newspaper business — especially in Michigan — is hurting.

“‘There’s a real struggle with newspapers right now,’ Zacks said. ‘Obviously the Internet — especially with my generation — is becoming the primary source for gathering information.’

[As if Flint, the flat-on-its-back city spotlighted in Michael Moore’s 1989 classic Roger & Me, doesn’t have enough problems. – Ed.]

Buyouts offered to Free Press employees-memo – Reuters.com

“The Detroit Media Partnership, a joint operating agreement between Free Press owner Gannett Co Inc. and MediaNews Group, which owns The Detroit News, aims to cut 110 positions, it said in a memo to employees on Friday. ‘If the voluntary offer doesn’t result in a sufficient number of volunteers, or if in the future, economic conditions worsen, it may be necessary to consider layoffs,’ the memo said.”

Saving investigative journalism – Steve Outing

“A new non-profit group called Pro Publica is being formed to fund and produce investigative journalism projects, which it will pitch to newspapers and magazines. One of the founders is Paul Steiger, who was top editor of the Wall Street Journal for 16 years.”

Black day for hockey coverage in the Bay Area, SF Chronicle and SJ Mercury News buy out and lay off Sharks beat reporters – Julia Dominic

“The San Francisco Chronicle bought out the contract of Sharks beat writer Ross McKeon, who has been covering the team since 1991. Also, Sharks beat writer Victor Chi is on the list of 31 San Jose Mercury News employees who were laid off on Monday. Fifteen others, including soccer and boxing reporter Dylan Hernandez and photographer Meri Simon, voluntarily resigned.”

[Maybe it’s a good thing that Bay Area sports fans don’t have much to cheer about these days – Ed.]

Bear Stearns Predicts Ripple Effect of Real Estate Decline – Editor & Publisher

”Retail is going to be the most vulnerable category, since consumers will probably spend less. Florida, predicts Bear Stearns, will feel these affects more acutely. It’s expected that retail sales will drop in Q3 and as a result retailers will cut back dramatically on advertising. In Bear Stearns coverage universe, Tribune and E.W. Scripps have the most exposure to Florida and California in terms of revenue at 37% and 14%, respectively.”

[It’s beginning to look like a perfect storm for newspapers, at least in some areas of the country. Demographic shifts and online competition are combining with a softening economy to accelerate declines in advertising. This leads to layoffs, a weaker product and more reader flight. – Ed.]

Chronicle colleagues who care

[Former San Jose Mercury News staffers have set up a blog to commiserate, keep in touch and share job leads. The paper has reportedly cut its reporting staff by half from its peak. – Ed.]

Alan Mutter throws cold water on the Yahoo newspaper partnership announced last year. The deal had been the subject of a recent glowing report by Deutsche Bank, which forecast that the deal could lead to actual increases in newspaper revenues as soon as 2009.

Hogwash, Mutter says, quoting sources inside the coalition. A restaurant that serves lunch and dinner can get a big initial boost in business by adding breakfast, but that surge won’t be duplicated the next year. “We aren’t anywhere near matching the initial gains,” says one insider quoted in the story.

It doesn’t help that the focus of the deal is recruitment advertising, which is being hit by a slowdown right now.

Some innovative thinking on the future of newspapers comes from The Dilbert Blog, of all places. Dilbert proposes that newspapers will last as long as two cell phone upgrades (I think he’s pessimistic) and that the cell phone will eventually evolve to replace the newspaper. Phones could even be equipped with e-paper scrolls that simulate the experience of reading a paper (don’t laugh).

Dilbert also proposes that newspapers adopt a hybrid editorial model that combines the best of digg.com with the judgment of human editors and customization features that screen out news we don’t want. What starts as a tongue-in-cheek epitaph on newspapers actually turns into an essay with some pretty creative ideas. The more than 100 comments indicate that it stirred up some other people’s thinking, too.

Thanks to Cris Cohen for the link.

Alan Mutter offers a letter from a former newspaper owner who explains why he no longer reads the newspaper he once published. The essay tugs at your heartstrings just a little. This guy loved newspapering, but years of union intransigence, executive stubbornness and relentless competition from new media sapped his energy. Recently, his old paper called to offer a year’s subscription for $15.99. Sounds like desperation.

Note his comments about the early days of the Web, and how newspaper owners blew off online publishing as being, at best, a value add. Successful institutions rarely see the competitors that displace them until it’s too late. They’re far too wrapped up in their own success. The comments offer another interesting anecdote on that topic.

Recent downsizing initiatives in newspaper land:

• St. Louis Post-Dispatch offers 60 buyouts – Employees must be at least 50 with 10 years of service. The move is expected to save up to $4.4 million a year, or $73,000 per employee.
• The Baltimore News-American will lay off an undisclosed number of employees, citing the sluggish economy in the area.
• The Daily Herald, third largest newspaper in Illinois, will lay off about 40 employees. Surprisingly, circulation has been flat at the paper, compared to the overall pattern of declines throughout the U.S.
• The St. Paul Pioneer Press said 15 employees will take buyouts, including 10 newsroom staff members. The paper is hoping to eliminate 30 positions in all.
• Media News Group of Denver said it’ll cut back on staffing at some of its Northern California papers. The publisher hopes to eliminate jobs through attrition, but said layoffs can’t be ruled out.
• The Tennessean offered voluntary buyouts to 15 staffers. The paper has already frozen hiring and cut issue sizes by about six pages.

Media-watchers have found some reasons to be optimistic recently:

• Deutsche Bank thinks the alliance between 17 newspapers companies and Yahoo could stanch the industry’s bleeding much faster than expected, reports Editor & Publisher. Analysts think that the revenue from Yahoo’s HotJobs recruitment site, in particular, could add 20% to newspapers’ online revenue growth by the second half of 2008. Taken together, the online boost from the Yahoo alliance could pull newspapers out of their slide and turn them toward revenue growth by 2009, the authors say.

The forecast is positively giddy, given that few facts and figures have been released since the alliance was announced last November. It also seems optimistic in light of signs of a coming economic slowdown and softness in recruitment advertising. One odd note is the study’s description of the display advertising business as growing “gang-busters.” In fact, the most recent Interactive Advertising Bureau data actually sees a decline in display ads as a percentage of overall online advertising. While the overall display market is growing, it’s a stretch to characterize it as being on a tear.

• Ad spending on newspaper websites increased 19.3% in the second quarter, according to a Newspaper Association of America survey cited in MediaPost. Of course, the decline in print advertising revenue for the quarter exceeded the total online revenue of the newspapers cited in the study. But it’s nice to see the growth trend continue.

• E&P asks, plaintively, “Is Ad Revenue Stabilizing?” That’s because Wachovia Equity Research reported that newspapers suffered only a 7.2% decline in ad sales in July, which is less than the 7.5% and 8.1% drop-offs reported in May and June. While the news is heartening, it’s probably best to wait for a few more months’ worth of data before forecasting a soft landing.